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Solar & Ocean changes are shown to be the dominant drivers of Global Temperature Trends, with CO2 playing a more minor role than previously thought, according to the Holton Weather NEW REVISED NEW Statistical Global Temperature Model HSOC M3! (These latest results show that Global Cooling now has a distinct possibility of occurring during and for the next approximate 30 to 40 year period at least)

I had never been completely happy with the fact that the CO2 Trace over the years heads upwards at a steady rate, and that the Global temperatures over the same period of years certainly do not. They (Global Temperatures) move upwards generally, but in a very erratic up and down trace with many peaks and troughs of significance. So, I set about checking my previous model HSOC M2 and re-examining all the input data in great detail. I found that the Solar and Ocean Input factors that I had previously used were not ideal, and so set about producing a new revised Global Temperature Model with the better climate inputs.

The NEW REVISED statistical model has been produced by Holton Weather from all the apparent climate influencing factors of note, ie. Solar, Ocean & CO2 inputs. The climatic input factors have been placed together in a NEW REVISED Statistical Global Temperature Model. In this new revised model HSOC M3, exactly the same model methodology is used as in the past model HSOC M2 assimulation (As shown below in the previous article on this Web Page).

However, this time only the AA Solar-Magnetic Index was used for the Solar Input, and there is assumed here to be a solar input lag period of 1 to 16 years(A solar cycle lasts for 9 to 16 years duration an gives a much better measure of the solar output when taken as a full cycle). The AA Index was therefore placed in the new HSOC M3 Model as a running mean of the past 16 years of AA Index recordings. This new approach, with a lag, appears to give a much better correlation result, when placed against the actual Global Combined Land & Sea Temperature Data. In fact the lagged AA Solar-Magnetic data now became, in this new HSOC M3 Model ,the dominant player with a top 51.6% influence on the 1901 to 2008 Global Temperature trace figures!

(CLIMATE CHANGE SHORT CONCLUSIONS 1: ***See Graphs 1 & 2 below. Note: The sharp recent levelling off & falling away of AA Values, showing the recent drop in Solar Outputs. The AA recent trends would have a cooling effect on global temperatures ie. global temperature inputs from AA values would be expected to continue to cause a cooling input effect on Global Temperatures with falling AA forecast inputs in the future. A forecast Solar minimum period has commenced already and is expected to continue for some time(See previous HW article on Global Warming for further information on AA and Solar Activity Forecasts)).

The second most important climatic input of Ocean Temperature Data was also altered from the previous HSOC M2 model to include just 2 main ocean players in this new HSOC M3 Model. Namely, the 2 dominant Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature measuring indices, (1) the Atlantic Ocean AMO Index, which was found to have a 23.6% influence, and, (2) the Pacific Ocean PDO Index, which was found to have at 9.6% influence...Giving a Total Ocean influence of 33.2% on Global Temperature Trends in the new model.

(CLIMATE CHANGE SHORT CONCLUSIONS 2:***See Graphs 3 & 4 below. Note: The 50 to 60 year cyclic oscillations of AMO & PDO. And further note, that the PDO Index is already on a "down-slope run". While the AMO Index appears also likely to do so also soon, as it has visually reached the middle of the current peak cycle. Both PDO and AMO are also likely (In addition to the AA Index cooling inputs) to have a levelling effect input, or more likely a cooling input into the HSOC M3 Index in future, as they both appear to be at the start of their cooling cycles. Historically these cooling cycles would be expected to continue for many years yet.)

(*PLEASE NOTE THAT AMO & PD0 VALUES HAVE BEEN MULTIPLIED BY 10 TO EXPAND THE GRAPH FOR VIEWING PURPOSES)

The CO2 influence on the model was found to have only a 15.2% influence in this NEW REVISED HSOC M3 Model. This new HSOC M3 Model, when completed with the three climatic input factors of AA Index, AMO & PDO Ocean Indices & CO2, showed a very strong correlation with Global Sea and Land Temperatures Combined for the whole of the 1901 to 2008 period.

The new HSOC M3 Model, shows clearly that the main input parameters affecting Global Temperature are the AA Solar-Magnetic Index and the AMO & PDO Ocean Indices.

These 2 Model Inputs together comprise 84.8% of the influence that the new HWSOC M3 Model has in correlations with Global Warming Trends from 1901 to 2008.

Both the AA Solar-Magnetic Input & the AMO-PDO Ocean inputs are showing fairly clear signals that they are in a levelling off, or more likely cooling trend for a 30 to 40 year period at least.

These 2 main players are expected to overide any more minor warming trends caused by any continuing increase in the 15.2% CO2 influence in the Model. Hence Global Temperatures are expected to be continued levelling off or more likely ro start or continue a Global Cooling Trend over the next 30 to 40 year period at least.

Note should also be taken that this new HSOC M3 Model mirrors very well any longer, medium and shorter term Global Temperature Trends in the Graphs 5 & 6 shown below. In fact the similartities of the two traces are quite startling!

GRAPH 5: YEARLY HSOC M3 INDEX & LAND-SEA COMBINED GLOBAL TEMPERATURES 1901 to 2008

(*PLEASE NOTE THAT GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ANOMOLY VALUES HAVE BEEN MULTIPLIED BY 40 AND 10 THEN ADDED, FOR EASE OF COMPARISON OF SLOPE TRENDS WITH HSOC M3 INDEX VALUES)

The correlations of the new model HSOC M3 with Global Temperature are a very high R=.925, or R2=.856, showing that the new model accounts for a very high 86% of the Global Temperature variation!

GRAPH 6: YEARLY HSOC M3 INDEX & LAND-SEA COMBINED GLOBAL TEMPERATURES 1990 to 2008

The obvious conclusion from these results, is that Solar is the dominant influence on Global Temperature, followed by a significant Ocean influences next, and with CO2 only having a minor influence on the Global Temperature trends. This conclusion, when taken with a AA Solar Cycle current and expected future downturn; and with a current and expected Cold PDO phases continuing; and with an expected AMO cold phase developing in the next few years; would most likely be that Global Temperatures would enter a downturn cooling cycle. This is the fairly strong prediction from the new HSOC M3 Model results and from the current Solar & Climate trends & from future predictions.

APPENDIX: (A) FROM THE HSOC M3 MODEL USING FORECAST AA, AMO, PDO & CO2 VALUES,THE FOLLOWING GLOBAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008:

(b) Also, it should be noted that there is also more hopeful news for the Australian farming and general community on the rainfall side of the Climate Change subject as well.......With South East Australian Growing Season Rainfall expected to climb out of the current Dry-Drought spell shortly. See NEW Climate change research by Holton Weather, "NEW Holton Weather Extra Long Range South Eastern Australian (SA/VIC/NSW/TAS & SE QLD Areas) Rainfall Index (HGSRI) shows a Strong Likehood of a Return to a "Wetter" Rainfall Cycle in the Next Few Years. This is "Wetter" Rainfall Cycle is expected to continue for approximately 45 years duration." Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd: 6th August 2008, at http://www.holtonweather.com/article2.htm

{*NB: This article and research is NOT supported or financed by any industry, lobby group or any other group whatsoever)

This article and contents are copyright: Ian Holton 2008. Small parts or graphs from this article can be reproduced providing that they clearly state that they were obtained from the web article "Solar & Ocean changes are shown to be the dominant drivers of Global Temperature Trends, with CO2 playing a more minor role than previously thought, according to the Holton Weather NEW REVISED NEW Statistical Global Temperature Model HSOC M3! (These latest results show that Global Cooling now has a distinct possibility of occurring during and for the next approximate 30 to 40 year period at least)" Ian Holton: 6th August 2008, from the http://www.holtonweather.com site.

Holton Weather Statistical Global Temperature Model HSOC M2 shows convincing evidence that Global Temperature changes from 1900 to 2008 are equally linked to 2 Major Factors -Namely Solar-Ocean and CO2 Changes.

Ian Holton: 19th April 2008 [*Revised with improved graphs 23rd April 2008]:

Introduction: In a effort to see just what is really causing any global warming and any global temperature changes since 1900 I decided to construct a new statistical model from all the apparent influencing factors of note, eg. various solar, CO2 and ocean factors. This new model is similar to the earlier one that I have published on this web-site at Article Weather News Items. However, this time I have included a few extra different solar & ocean variables, ie. various magnetic solar related factors, solar maximum strength for each sunspot cycle, and ocean cycles other than the well known El Nino & La Nina.

The result was a very close model result to what has actually occurred in Global Temperature changes from 1900 to 2008.

The problems I have had previously with CO2 being called the major effect on Global Temperature changes, is that although it has good correlations with global temperature, it does only so because it goes in straight upward line. It never explains any flatter temperature periods, or declining temperature periods (See Graph 1 Below).

In contrast, the problems I have had with Solar and Ocean effects are that they mirror any flatter temperature periods, or declining temperature periods, but they do not explain some of the temperature increase periods(See Graph 2 Below).

However, on "marrying" these two factors into one "Holton Solar-Ocean-CO2 Mark 2 Statistical Computer Model"(HSOC M2), the similarity and correlations between the HSOC M2 Model and Global Temperature changes becomes a very convincing exercise! (See Graph 3 Below).

Relevant CO2, Solar+Ocean and Holton Solar+Ocean+CO2 Model(HSOC M2) Correlations:

Correlations of CO2 with Global Temperatures from 1900 to 2008 are at high R= 0.870. (1 is perfect correlation, 0 is no correlation) and Rsquared= 0.759.

Correlations of the Holton Solar+Ocean Data with Global Temperatures from 1900 to 2008 are at high accuracy R=0.745 and Rsquared= 0.556.

Correlations of the Holton Solar+Ocean+CO2 Model(HSOC M2) with Global Temperatures from 1900 to 2008 are very high accuracy R= 0.932 and Rsquared= 0.807.

The following logical factors were used in a test to see if they correlated with global temperature from 1900 to 2008 inclusive: CO2, Yearly Number of AA Magnetic Storms above 40nT, Solar Mean Max Sunspot Strength for each Solar Cycle, Earth's Yearly Magnetic Rate of Change in Declination[Solar related], SOI (Southern Oscillation Index [Measure of strength of El-Nino & La Nina Southern Oscillation], Indian Ocean Dipole[Measure of strength of Similar Oscillations in The Indian Ocean], & Pacific Ocean PDO[Measure of strength of Similar Oscillations in the North Pacific Ocean].

The following factors were selected in the HSOC M2 Model for their Moderate to High Correlations [All Ocean factors are at least at a 5% sig level (95% sig level) and all Solar and CO2 factors are at a 1% (99% sig level or better)] with Global Temperature Changes, and were then used to find the closest HSOC M2 Model correlation to the 1900 to 2008 Yearly Global Temperature Changes.

(a) Yearly CO2 values were found to be highest influence in the model at an influence of 48.0%,

(b) AA Yearly Number of Magnetic Storms Greater than 40nT was at 26.6% influence,

(c) While Yearly Solar Cycle Mean Max Sunspots for each Solar Cycle came in at a 6.9% influence,

(d) And, Earth's Yearly Magnetic Rate of Change in Declination(Solar Related) at 12.6% influence,

(e) Indian Ocean Dipole (My measurement of Dipole) at a 1.7% influence,

(f) And finally, Pacific Ocean PDO (My measuement of PDO) at a 3.1% influence.

This means that these results show that the Solar and Ocean influence the Global temperature changes at a combined influence of 52%, which is greater than the CO2 influence at 48%.

These figures show convincingly (in my opinion) that the CO2 influence is much less than the IPCC report suggested (They suggest in the last report that the CO2 influence on Global temperature changes is at around 90%, compared to 48% influence that I found here).......And conversely, that Solar Effects are much more significant than found in the IPCC report. In fact the percentages are almost the same for both CO2 and Solar. While, this HSOC M2 model shows that solar and ocean influences combined slightly outweigh the CO2 influence on Global Temperature changes from 1900 to 2008.

These results strongly suggest to me that there is much more flexability in the whole Earth Ecological, Temperature & Climate System than envisiged in the last IPCC report.......And that the future Global Ocean, Land and Combined temperatures could move either up, or down, or stay at similar levels for long periods.......And most likely do all three regularly, depending on the Ocean and Solar influence changes, which will tend to overide any CO2 effects for both short & long periods of time.

These results also suggest strongly that both Climate Change debating camps have some merit in their arguments, and that there is much room for a compromise of both beliefs (And the results also back up many of the views expressed in my earlier 2004 article on this subject, found below at the end of this new article).

But, that we should have a much broader earth planning strategy, including plans for temperature rise, or temperature fall, or more likely both temperature movements regularly occurring in the future. The results show that cleaner technologies for power and industry is still needed, however, a compromise approach would be better served with industry & developing countries.......And, that the earth's problem is not as urgent in fixing as some alarmists would have us believe. Too much urgency in developing countries and even in some developed countries will cause more problems than those being fixed (eg. bio-fuels and world food shortages and skyrocketing food prices problems).

In saying this, any better environmental approaches are always welcome......And, we must ensure that we keep the earth clean and green at all times, and prevent pollution.......And, kept from any large scale native vegetation clearances.......And, that we ensure the protection of human and all living species of animal, bird, fish, etc.

The results also show that urgent research needs to be placed into Solar Research Areas and their effects on Global Temperature. This Solar Research Area seems to have been put in the background with the current strong emphasis on CO2 only type research. (Volcanic effects are also of high importance & can also, of course, have significant effects on Global Temperatures, these can not be planned for in any eventuality, and are therefore not discussed here. Again more research into these effects should also be planned.)

Of note also, are the factors of a recent year Global Temperature levelling off & short period Global Temperature cooling trend. These recent factors also tend to add confirmation that the HSOC M2 Statistical Model is a very valid and realistic model of the Global Temperature variations that are occurring.

The following are the three relevant (as also shown in the introduction) graphs that convincingly show how a combination of the two major players found in the HSOC M2 Model have a very strong relationship with Global Temperatures changes from 1900 to 2008.

The temptation looking at the first two graphs is to assume (as many do) that Solar-Ocean effects seem to be more closely associated with the Global Temperature Trace (and hence, the main influence of the 2 factors) until around 1988 (Graph 2), and that after around 1988, CO2 seems to have taken over as being more closely associated with the Global Temperature Trace (Graph1). However, it must be remembered that both factors, Solar-Ocean & CO2 in the model remain at the same "HSOC M2" model input amounts during the whole period from 1900 till 2008.......And to therefore gain such a high correlation & such a high degree of "graph visual fit", must be at around the same influence throughout the whole 1900 to 2008 period.

Appendix: Global Temperature Forecast Ranges from the IPCC and HSOC M2 Model for the Year 2100:

Thanks to Lindsay Smail of Geelong Weather Services for help in Constructing the Graphs

3. Ocean data from my own analysis of sea surface temperature anomoly charts found in "El Nino Southern Oscillation & Climate Variability": CSIRO: 1998: Allan, Lindsay & Parker & at http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/

{*NB: This article and research is NOT supported or financed by any industry, lobby group or any other group whatsoever)

This article and contents are copyright: Ian Holton 2008. Small parts or graphs from this article can be reproduced providing that they clearly state that they were obtained from the web article "Holton Weather Statistical Global Temperature Model HSOC M2 shows convincing evidence that Global Temperature changes from 1900 to 2008 are equally linked to 2 Major Factors -Namely Solar-Ocean and CO2 Changes". Ian Holton: 19th April 2008, from the http://www.holtonweather.com site.

[Notes: While I have worked for 25 years with the Bureau of Meteorology as a weather forecaster, and I now provide short and long-range weather forecasting for the Australian Agricultural Community, I do not claim to be an expert on the Greenhouse Effect or Global Warming. This short discussion paper is just written for the general interest of lay persons and to provide some links for folk wanting to look further into these phenomenon. My viewpoint on these matters is to keep an open mind and to take note of any material that appears to be of interest and which has a reasonably sound scientific base as its base. I always take a viewpoint of looking after the environment as best I can regardless of any Greenhouse Effect & any Global warning.]

Global warming is a subject that appears to bring out either "black or white" viewpoints on the so called "greenhouse warming CO2 effect" from scientists and lay-persons alike. Most people fit into either the "black" or the "white" opinion areas, but very few people seem to fit into the "grey" opinion category.

This very short article is designed not to promote any particular viewpoint, it is designed as a discussion starter and thought promoter. It is worthwhile often to research all the differing ideas and make up your own mind on any topic, rather than blindly following someone else's opinion, without looking at the other side of the argument. Often, the answer lies in the middle of the "black and white" opinion on any topic, and may turn out to be some shade of grey.

Examples of the different web viewpoints can be found on various web-sites eg. "One Big Village" http://www.onebigvillage/content.asp?topicID=70%obv1=msnh an pro Greenhouse Warming opinion web site; to the reverse, "Opinionet-Bob Webster site" http://opinionet.com.staff/bobwebster/globalwarmingseries04.shtm against Greenhouse Warming opinion web site. There are myriads of web-sites showing both extreme "each end of the scale" opinions on Greenhouse Warming. Just place "Greenhouse Effect Global Warming" in your favourite search engine and see all the sites that appear. One must be careful here, as some of the web-sites are pushing certain personal, corporate and research wheel-barrows, and are therefore biased towards a certain opinion/result. At a quick read all sites can be present very convincing arguments in favour of their particular viewpoint.

While examples of lay-person contrasting opinion, can be found in some of the letters to the editor of various agricultural weekly journals, eg. " Climatologists worldwide keep warning about what is happening...Australia is drying out and getting hotter, and doing so even faster in the past 50 years" (Tony Doherty, Cundletown NSW: Stock Journal 6th September 2004) a pro-Greenhouse warning opinion...One can look around at the current drought ravaged country of Australia, with low dam inflows and many farmers facing unfortunate ruin, and agree with Tonys comments.

Then we can hear the reverse view-point, "" I grew up in the Mallee and in recent years we have seen heat waves and droughts that were typical of the late 1930's and 1940's, when we saw half the country blow away...There has always been climate change, from the Ice Age to the tropics and vice versa." (Jack McCague, Kyabram VIC: Weekly Times, September 2004) an against greenhouse warming opinion...One can see quickly on a map of growing season rainfall in Australia in the first half of last century that extended dry periods and drought were more common than in the second half of the century. And in the 1930s and 1940s five dryish/drought seasons in a row were common and many farmers were forced off the land by these dry periods (and the effects of the depression), and agree with Jacks comments.

As I have stated previously, this article does not set out to push any particular bandwagon, but just to look at some of the various opinions.

A good website showing surface temperature changes can be seen on http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/graphs . Most of these graphs show a warming during the last 50 to 100 years of around .3 to .5C. This warming is significant in a global temperature time scale of 50 to 100 years..

CO2, the stated principal cause of global warming greenhouse effect , has increased at a steady rate during this period. This CO2 increase does not follow the less steep temperature warming shown before 1950 and the more rapid temperature warming after 1950, but in general matches the global warming trends.

The sunspot cycle & solar model have also been used to explain the temperature increase. They match reasonably well with an increase of sunspot maximum levels at the sunspot maximum period which occurs every 10 to 11 years. This sunspot maximum has been increasing irregularly during the past 100 years. This could also be claimed to be a cause of global warming. A period called the "Maunder Minimum" of sunspot activity when little or no sunspot activity was evident back in the 1600's was claimed as the cause of a sharp global cooling, and the cause of a year when the Northern Hemisphere "had no summer".

An increase in site specific surface temperature records have also been blamed on the city heat island effect around larger towns and cities. This Urban heat effect has increased as the population has in turn increased during the past 100 years. There is some evidence that this "heat island" effect has indeed caused such an increase in temp records at many sites. Some recent satellite recorded sea, land & atmosphere temperature records do in fact show a less defined global warming trend.

The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia has a detailed paper on "The Greenhouse Effect and Climate". This article contains quite a few graphs showing temperature changes, CO2 changes, sunspot number changes, volcanic eruption effects, etc, etc over thousands of years, and is a useful site to view at http://www.bom.au/info/climate/change/gallery/19.shtml .

While a John Daly site containing an interesting contrasting viewpoint paper is , "Days of Sunshine", at http://www.vision.net.au%Edaly/solar.htm . This paper shows temperature and sunspot activity graphs going back to the year 900. This shows that global temperature back in the "Medieval Optimum" times was much higher than recent global temperatures have been.

The next ten to twenty years will provide the real evidence as to which way our global temperature is heading. If the temperature increases steadily one can jump on the CO2 increase Greenhouse Global Warming bandwagon. If the global temperature decreases one can assume that imminent forecast decrease in solar activity & hence global temperature is the more important factor in the earth's temperature variation. However, both factors may well play a role in the whole argument, and possibly the temperature will even off to more of a plateau effect. Or, maybe a large volcanic eruption or two may even complicate the equation?

Meanwhile, should we sit and do nothing? Obviously not, for even if the sunspot theory proves to be the more correct one, we should strive always to stop polluting the earth and it's atmosphere. The preservation of native forests and the planned re-planting of native trees, shrubs & grasses can only improve the earth's environment for man, bird, plant & animal. And more efficient water usage and farming practices can only benefit mankind as a whole by increasing quality food production and inproving the health of our rivers, soils, man and all living creatures. After all it is a God given command to look after the earth and all things upon it.