HOLTON WEATHER FORECASTING Global Warming

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Introduction & Methodology: Using the latest version of the Holton Solar-Ocean-CO2 Statistical Computer Model (HSOCM4), an attempt is here made to determine approximate Global Temperature Trends for the period 2009 to 2050. This type of forecast is a little difficult to make, because the initial climate input factors have to be forecast for that period ahead, to enable the Global Temperature Trend to be then forecast (ie. a forecast is used to make another forecast). However, having said that, all of the climatic input data used in this HSOCM4 model are shown from past Historical climatic data, to run in reasonably easy to discern regular cycle patterns lasting several decades, ie. The Pacific Ocean Decadel Oscillation Index (PDO), Atlantic Ocean Oscillation Index(AMO) , & Solar Magnetic AA Index(AA).......And therefore, a reasonable forecast value of each can be determined with a reasonable degree of certainty well into the future. While the other used climatic variable in the model, CO2, shows levels that are historically in a fairly linear upward direction, so this CO2 value also can be reasonably easily forecast.

These 4 variables mentioned above, AA, AMO, PDO & CO2, were placed in a model equation. This HSOCM4 model equation was formulated according to the amount of each input climatic variable that gave the best HSCOM4 result (when compared with past Global temperature data from 1901 to 2008). The final equation for the HSCOM4 had an approximate value for each climatic input component as: Solar Magnetic Lagged AA Index45%: AMO Ocean 29%: PDO Ocean 21%: and CO2 5%. The Solar magnetic AA value being run with a mean lagged value of 0 years to minus 15 years. A lagged mean AA value not only captures a full Solar Cycle of approximately 11 years, but also has a lag time required to pass the Solar-Magnetic changes, onto Ocean heating changes, and then further onto Global Temperature changes. The time taken to transfer the heat energy through the earth's transfer system would be expected to occur over a period of up to 15 years.

GRAPH 1 BELOW: The Solar-Magnetic AA value is a measure that I have selected, because, with a lag time it accurately reflects many (or even most) of the Global Temperature Trace changes shown over the 1901 to 2008 period. It is also one of the few Solar values readily available with accurate records back to the turn of last century. Also, recent studies have shown that solar-magnectic activity has a big influence on Stratospheric & Atmospheric temperature changes, and has an effect on ozone levels as well. See eg.

...And the forecast AA lagged values are also reflecting the many predictions of a continuing low solar-magnetic output for Solar Cyles 24 and 25. See eg.

GRAPH 2 BELOW: The AMO Ocean Index value is a measure of ocean temperature changes that reularly occur in long "many decadel" cycles in the North Atlantic Ocean. These AMO values have been shown, from the historical 1901 to 2008 data, to correlate very well with Global Temperature trends. As this AMO ocean area is one of the main ocean temperature formulation areas of the world ocean current sytems, it is no wonder that the AMO has a large effect on Global Mean Temperatures.

See the 1901 to 2008 Actual AMO values below, together with Forecast AMO values from 2009 to 2050, formulated reflecting the current expected below Average AMO Temperature Cycle, which appears to have started to commence in the North Atlantic Ocean during late last year 2008 & early this year 2009.

GRAPH 3 BELOW: The PDO Ocean Index value is a measure of changes that regularly also occur in long "many decadel" cycles in the North Pacific Ocean. these PDO values have been shown, from the historical 1901 to 2008 data, to correlate very well with Global Temperature trends. As this PDO Ocean area is one of the main ocean temperature release areas to & from the Arctic Ocean, and also is linked strongly to the well known El Nino-La Nina cycles and their frequency, it is not surprising that the PDO also shows good correlations with global temperature trends

See the 1901 to 2008 Actual PDO values below, together with Forecast PDO values from 2009 to 2050, formulated reflecting the current and expected Below Average PDO "Cool Temperature" Cycle, that has in the past few years commenced in the North Pacific Ocean.

GRAPH 4 BELOW: The CO2 value (calculated in parts per million) is a measure of the main Green-House Gas, and it's changes of quantity found in the earth's atmosphere. The mean yearly CO2 value has been going upwards at a linear trend right through the 2001 to 2008 period, but since around 1980 it has increased at a slightly higher rate than pre-1980 values.......Assumably due to either (1) man-made industry emmissions increase, or (2) gradually rising world ocean temperatures allowing more CO2 to escape from the world's oceans, or (3) a combination of the two.......which is more likely the result. The link between CO2 levels & Global Temperatures is a very controversial one! On it's own CO2 will not, from current CO2 levels upwards, cause any particularly sinificant increase in Global Mean Temperature. However, IPCC reports state that, with the aid of computer model programs, which add several positive feed-backs to the CO2 increase (eg. Increased water vapour added to the atmosphere as global temperatures warm), more heat is kept within the earth's atmosphere. Therefore Global Temperatures will increase significantly in the future.......from these added positive feed-backs. Then again, other scientific persons & science organisations believe that several opposing negative feedbacks will counteract the positive feed-backs that may occur from any increasing CO2 levels (eg. More water vapour will mean more clouds and albedo levels will increase, lowering global temperatures. See http://www.bbso.njit.edu/Research/EarthShine/ ) I would agree with the latter opinions on CO2 Global Mean Temperature effects.

Apart from the above opinion on the effects of CO2 on Global Mean Temperature, I strongly believe (and much available science literature will back me up on this), that most, if not all, IPCC used Global Mean Temperature Forecating Models, do not allow sufficiently in their formulation for any Solar-Magnetic and AMO/PDO Ocean changes...And it is these latter mentioned 3 climatic variables, which are in my opinion (and the opinion of many others), the 3 strongest climatic influences on Mean Global Temperature trends.

See the 1901 to 2008 Actual CO2 values below, together with Forecast CO2 values from 2009 to 2050, formulated reflecting the current continuing upward linear CO2 increase levels.

GRAPH 5 BELOW: The actual & forecast values used for each of the climatic input values are shown in the graph below, together with the HSOCM4 model produced from the numerical addition of these climatic input values. It can be seen clearly that the AA magnetic input is the highest input used at 45% of the total 100% value of the HSOCM4 model values. The AMO comprises 29%, and the PDO 21%. While the CO2 value is at a much lower 5% level, which is the level which, when added to the Solar-Ocean part of the HSOCM4 model, correlated best...And, this low value for CO2 "temperature effectiveness", would also be around the expected very approximate basic science related "temperature effectiveness" value of CO2 on Global Mean Temperature trends(ie. Without the IPCC quoted computer model positive feed-backs added on).

GRAPH 6 BELOW: The actual & forecast HSOCM4 values can be more clearly seen when shown on their own, as in the graph below.

FORECAST RESULTS OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 2009 TO 2050 AS CALCULATED BY HOLTON WEATHER HSOCM4 MODEL

GRAPH 7 BELOW: Past Global Mean Temperature values from 1901 to 2008, and the Forecast Global Mean Temperature Trend HSOCM4 values from 2009 to 2050, can be seen in the graph below.

Importantly, Mean Global Temperatures are expected, according to the HSOCM4 model, to continue the current slow cooling that has occurred since around the year 2002.......And, even more importantly, because of the Solar-Magnetic lag time period (Which is only just now starting , as are only at the start of the 15 year lag period which reflects the cureent "Solar Slowdown"), and the fact that the cooler ocean mode cycles of the PDO and AMO appear to have only just commenced.......Then cooling is expected to occur at a greater rate, by the HSOCM4 model shortly. And this is forecast to bring Global Mean Temperatures back to early last century values (ie 1901 to 1920 values).......or to even slightly lower Mean Global Temperatures than the 1901 to 1920 period, by around the 2016 to 2021 period of time. The Mean Global temperatures are then expected to stay down at these cooler levels until the end of the forecast period of 2050. Note however, that because of a forecast PDO and AMO cycle changes towards their next warmer cycles, a returning warming period of Global Temperatures is forecast to occur after around 2036-2041 onwards (Though Global Mean temperatures are still forecast to stay below the long term average until after the year 2050.)

I started formulating this HSOCM4 model by correlating the Historical Solar AA lagged Index with Historical mean Global Temperatures, and selected the best fit.......I then added an amount of the historical AMO Index which gained a further increase in the "Best fit" with the Historical Mean Global temperature data set.......And then, I did the same with the PDO values to obtain and even better corellation with Global Mean Temperatures. All of the above climatic input values, ie. The historical Lagged AA Index; The AMO Index; and the PDO Index, could be seen to be clearly influencing the Historical Mean Global Temperature oscillations and trends from 1901 to 2008.......Even by just visually comparing them to the Historical Mean Global Temperature Trace the corellations are quite obvious!

On the other hand, CO2, however, while it shows an upward trend, does not correlate with any of the Historical Mean Global Temperature oscillations depicted from 1901 to 2008.......And the facts are, that if one goes further back using proxy historical temperature records and compares them with proxy CO2 records, CO2 always follows Global temperature, with a lag of approximately 800 years for any warming trends. CO2 also lags well behind in any cooling trends........So one can only assume, in my opinion & the opinion of many scientists, that the CO2 is being released from the oceans as the temperature warms and vice-versa when it cools. Therefore, the CO2 component to the HSOCM4 model was added lastly to see if it would further increase the accuarcy of the HSOCM4 model. And it was found to increase the correlation slightly with a small addition of CO2. However, any further addition was found to decrease the correlation, and to hence make the HSOCM4 model less accurate as one would expect if CO2 is not a big influence on Global temperature Trends.......However, to be fair, and to add a small caveat, it should be noted that the Mean Global Temperature predictions shown in th graph above, would show less Mean Global temperature cooling if a larger quantity of input CO2 were added to the HSOCM4 Model ie If CO2 did contain some extra positive feed-back mechanisms which overwhelmed any negative feedback mechanisms.......Though I strongly believe, and the HSOCM4 Model shows that this is not the case.

On the flip-side of the coin, however, it should be noted that there also the Mean Global Temperatures Forecast from the HSOCM4 model would become even lower if a "Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum Solar Type" situation develops, as forecast by some solar scientists.

Also, it is of note that the AMO cycle may take longer than I have predicted to fall into it's cooler phase, and this would slow down a little, the steep Global Mean temperature cooling rate on the forecast graph.... but, this AMO slower effect would not significantly effect the end resulting forecast of a deep Global Cooling Trend until the year 2050.

( Please Note...That this is an independent, non peer reviewed research study, non-funded research study, and is provided purely for my & your interest.......However the results, I believe, are soundly based on my reading, understanding & interpretation of the current science.......And, I also believe that they are of high importance. and of great interest to all who live in these in these times of global change)

This article and contents are, "Copyright: Ian Holton 2009". Small parts or one or two graphs from this article can be reproduced providing that they CLEARLY state that they were obtained from the article , " FORECAST MEAN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 2009 TO 2050", Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd (Issued 16th March 2009) found on the http://www.holtonweather.com site.

NOTES ON THE JANUARY-EARLY FEBRUARY 2009 SE AUSTRALIAN HEATWAVE AND ANY CONNECTION WITH GLOBAL WARMING (AGW) (Issued 5th February 2009)

The following article was posted to me by a client, I assume that it came from a Bureau of Meteorology Press Release

"The Bureau of Meterology says heatwaves like those that have gripped southern Australia recently will become longer and more frequent this century.Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania have each experienced record-breaking high temperatures over the past week.David Jones from the National Climate Centre says temperatures of 45 degrees Celsuis will become commonplace."We anticipate 2 to 4 degrees warming over Australia this current century," he said."We've seen large increases in heatwaves globally over the last hundred years. That's going to continue. It's going to accelerate"The National Climate Centre believes the changing weather patterns are the direct result of climate change."We have been seeing this escalation in extreme events and this is just simply a continuation of a trend," Mr Jones said.But he says heatwaves are becoming more frequent."Those kind of temperatures that only happened once every two or three decades, we're now seeing almost on an annual basis."

Let's really have a look at how January 2009 compares with past January years in Adelaide SA.

Now, let's look at a List of the days above 35C January Adelaide, South Australia:

Mmmm...not so hot after all in 2009..can't see any pattern emerging in that mass of different years all above 2009!

likely another on Friday next, and Maybe next Saturday, if change is delayed before long cooler spell...Which looks like settling in for a week or two...Still a long way to go yet to get anywhere near the higher ranked years!

So yes, we have had an extreme spell of 40C in 2009, and a long spell of 35C in 2008...But, there have been more days in the past of 40C+ in each month, and many more days of 35C+ in each month, spread over a scattering of years in many varied decades through the Adelaide historical record. And as for becoming more frequent in recent decades? The evidence presented does not show this to be the case!

Is this current heat AGW related, and are hot summer 35C and 40C days becoming more frequent in Adelaide? The evidence presented here suggest a NO to both questions!

The current very hot spells of 2008 and 2009 have more likely to do with the long drought and hard bare baked soils allowing greater solar heating of the surface land mass...And the current drought, well that can be clearly explained by the adverse sea surface temperature structure that has existed around Australia for the past 3 years in particular.

Ian Holton: Issued 27th January 2009 (NB:Corrected SH, NH & Global Temp prediction 28th January 2009)

Holton Weather -Month 2009	North Pacific Ocean 1PDO Prediction 2009	North Atlantic Ocean 2AMO Prediction 2009
JAN	-0.2	-0.2
FEB	-0.8	+0.5
MAR	+1.0	+0.1
APR	-0.4	-1.3
MAY	+1.2	-1.8
JUN	+1.3	-1.8
JUL	-1.1	+0.0
AUG	-0.3	-1.9
SEP	-0.6	-0.4
OCT	-1.2	-0.3
NOV	+0.7	+1.2
DEC	+1.7	+1.4

Holton Weather

Year- 2009

Global

Temp

Anomoly

Prediction

Northern

Hemisphere

Temp

Anomoly

Prediction

Southern

Hemisphere

Temp

Anomoly

Prediction

3Forecasts

+0.00C

+0.03C

-0.05C

2. AMO Index values are from http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

3. Tenperature anomolies are from Bureau of Meteorology Australia Temperature Means at http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/index_global.shtml

***Important NotesWhile care is taken in producing these above forecasts, no responsibility is taken for the accuracy of these forecasts, orfor the use of them by the customer, or for any loss that may occur by the use of any weather forecasting information contained in these forecasts. These forecasts are Copyright and may not be supplied to other persons without the author’s consent.

Solar & Ocean changes are shown to be the dominant drivers of Global Temperature Trends, with CO2 playing a more minor role than previously thought, according to the Holton Weather NEW REVISED NEW Statistical Global Temperature Model HSOC M3! (These latest results show that Global Cooling now has a distinct possibility of occurring during and for the next approximate 30 to 40 year period at least)

I had never been completely happy with the fact that the CO2 Trace over the years heads upwards at a steady rate, and that the Global temperatures over the same period of years certainly do not. They (Global Temperatures) move upwards generally, but in a very erratic up and down trace with many peaks and troughs of significance. So, I set about checking my previous model HSOC M2 and re-examining all the input data in great detail. I found that the Solar and Ocean Input factors that I had previously used were not ideal, and so set about producing a new revised Global Temperature Model with the better climate inputs.

The NEW REVISED statistical model has been produced by Holton Weather from all the apparent climate influencing factors of note, ie. Solar, Ocean & CO2 inputs. The climatic input factors have been placed together in a NEW REVISED Statistical Global Temperature Model. In this new revised model HSOC M3, exactly the same model methodology is used as in the past model HSOC M2 assimulation (As shown below in the previous article on this Web Page).

However, this time only the AA Solar-Magnetic Index was used for the Solar Input, and there is assumed here to be a solar input lag period of 1 to 16 years(A solar cycle lasts for 9 to 16 years duration an gives a much better measure of the solar output when taken as a full cycle). The AA Index was therefore placed in the new HSOC M3 Model as a running mean of the past 16 years of AA Index recordings. This new approach, with a lag, appears to give a much better correlation result, when placed against the actual Global Combined Land & Sea Temperature Data. In fact the lagged AA Solar-Magnetic data now became, in this new HSOC M3 Model ,the dominant player with a top 51.6% influence on the 1901 to 2008 Global Temperature trace figures!

(CLIMATE CHANGE SHORT CONCLUSIONS 1: ***See Graphs 1 & 2 below. Note: The sharp recent levelling off & falling away of AA Values, showing the recent drop in Solar Outputs. The AA recent trends would have a cooling effect on global temperatures ie. global temperature inputs from AA values would be expected to continue to cause a cooling input effect on Global Temperatures with falling AA forecast inputs in the future. A forecast Solar minimum period has commenced already and is expected to continue for some time(See previous HW article on Global Warming for further information on AA and Solar Activity Forecasts)).

The second most important climatic input of Ocean Temperature Data was also altered from the previous HSOC M2 model to include just 2 main ocean players in this new HSOC M3 Model. Namely, the 2 dominant Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature measuring indices, (1) the Atlantic Ocean AMO Index, which was found to have a 23.6% influence, and, (2) the Pacific Ocean PDO Index, which was found to have at 9.6% influence...Giving a Total Ocean influence of 33.2% on Global Temperature Trends in the new model.

(CLIMATE CHANGE SHORT CONCLUSIONS 2:***See Graphs 3 & 4 below. Note: The 50 to 60 year cyclic oscillations of AMO & PDO. And further note, that the PDO Index is already on a "down-slope run". While the AMO Index appears also likely to do so also soon, as it has visually reached the middle of the current peak cycle. Both PDO and AMO are also likely (In addition to the AA Index cooling inputs) to have a levelling effect input, or more likely a cooling input into the HSOC M3 Index in future, as they both appear to be at the start of their cooling cycles. Historically these cooling cycles would be expected to continue for many years yet.)

(*PLEASE NOTE THAT AMO & PD0 VALUES HAVE BEEN MULTIPLIED BY 10 TO EXPAND THE GRAPH FOR VIEWING PURPOSES)

The CO2 influence on the model was found to have only a 15.2% influence in this NEW REVISED HSOC M3 Model. This new HSOC M3 Model, when completed with the three climatic input factors of AA Index, AMO & PDO Ocean Indices & CO2, showed a very strong correlation with Global Sea and Land Temperatures Combined for the whole of the 1901 to 2008 period.

The new HSOC M3 Model, shows clearly that the main input parameters affecting Global Temperature are the AA Solar-Magnetic Index and the AMO & PDO Ocean Indices.

These 2 Model Inputs together comprise 84.8% of the influence that the new HWSOC M3 Model has in correlations with Global Warming Trends from 1901 to 2008.

Both the AA Solar-Magnetic Input & the AMO-PDO Ocean inputs are showing fairly clear signals that they are in a levelling off, or more likely cooling trend for a 30 to 40 year period at least.

These 2 main players are expected to overide any more minor warming trends caused by any continuing increase in the 15.2% CO2 influence in the Model. Hence Global Temperatures are expected to be continued levelling off or more likely ro start or continue a Global Cooling Trend over the next 30 to 40 year period at least.

Note should also be taken that this new HSOC M3 Model mirrors very well any longer, medium and shorter term Global Temperature Trends in the Graphs 5 & 6 shown below. In fact the similartities of the two traces are quite startling!

GRAPH 5: YEARLY HSOC M3 INDEX & LAND-SEA COMBINED GLOBAL TEMPERATURES 1901 to 2008

(*PLEASE NOTE THAT GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ANOMOLY VALUES HAVE BEEN MULTIPLIED BY 40 AND 10 THEN ADDED, FOR EASE OF COMPARISON OF SLOPE TRENDS WITH HSOC M3 INDEX VALUES)

The correlations of the new model HSOC M3 with Global Temperature are a very high R=.925, or R2=.856, showing that the new model accounts for a very high 86% of the Global Temperature variation!

GRAPH 6: YEARLY HSOC M3 INDEX & LAND-SEA COMBINED GLOBAL TEMPERATURES 1990 to 2008

The obvious conclusion from these results, is that Solar is the dominant influence on Global Temperature, followed by a significant Ocean influences next, and with CO2 only having a minor influence on the Global Temperature trends. This conclusion, when taken with a AA Solar Cycle current and expected future downturn; and with a current and expected Cold PDO phases continuing; and with an expected AMO cold phase developing in the next few years; would most likely be that Global Temperatures would enter a downturn cooling cycle. This is the fairly strong prediction from the new HSOC M3 Model results and from the current Solar & Climate trends & from future predictions.

APPENDIX: (A) FROM THE HSOC M3 MODEL USING FORECAST AA, AMO, PDO & CO2 VALUES,THE FOLLOWING GLOBAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2008:

(b) Also, it should be noted that there is also more hopeful news for the Australian farming and general community on the rainfall side of the Climate Change subject as well.......With South East Australian Growing Season Rainfall expected to climb out of the current Dry-Drought spell shortly. See NEW Climate change research by Holton Weather, "NEW Holton Weather Extra Long Range South Eastern Australian (SA/VIC/NSW/TAS & SE QLD Areas) Rainfall Index (HGSRI) shows a Strong Likehood of a Return to a "Wetter" Rainfall Cycle in the Next Few Years. This is "Wetter" Rainfall Cycle is expected to continue for approximately 45 years duration." Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd: 6th August 2008, at http://www.holtonweather.com/article2.htm

{*NB: This article and research is NOT supported or financed by any industry, lobby group or any other group whatsoever)

This article and contents are copyright: Ian Holton 2008. Small parts or graphs from this article can be reproduced providing that they clearly state that they were obtained from the web article "Solar & Ocean changes are shown to be the dominant drivers of Global Temperature Trends, with CO2 playing a more minor role than previously thought, according to the Holton Weather NEW REVISED NEW Statistical Global Temperature Model HSOC M3! (These latest results show that Global Cooling now has a distinct possibility of occurring during and for the next approximate 30 to 40 year period at least)" Ian Holton: 6th August 2008, from the http://www.holtonweather.com site.

Holton Weather Statistical Global Temperature Model HSOC M2 shows convincing evidence that Global Temperature changes from 1900 to 2008 are equally linked to 2 Major Factors -Namely Solar-Ocean and CO2 Changes.

Ian Holton: 19th April 2008 [*Revised with improved graphs 23rd April 2008]:

Introduction: In a effort to see just what is really causing any global warming and any global temperature changes since 1900 I decided to construct a new statistical model from all the apparent influencing factors of note, eg. various solar, CO2 and ocean factors. This new model is similar to the earlier one that I have published on this web-site at Article Weather News Items. However, this time I have included a few extra different solar & ocean variables, ie. various magnetic solar related factors, solar maximum strength for each sunspot cycle, and ocean cycles other than the well known El Nino & La Nina.

The result was a very close model result to what has actually occurred in Global Temperature changes from 1900 to 2008.

The problems I have had previously with CO2 being called the major effect on Global Temperature changes, is that although it has good correlations with global temperature, it does only so because it goes in straight upward line. It never explains any flatter temperature periods, or declining temperature periods (See Graph 1 Below).

In contrast, the problems I have had with Solar and Ocean effects are that they mirror any flatter temperature periods, or declining temperature periods, but they do not explain some of the temperature increase periods(See Graph 2 Below).

However, on "marrying" these two factors into one "Holton Solar-Ocean-CO2 Mark 2 Statistical Computer Model"(HSOC M2), the similarity and correlations between the HSOC M2 Model and Global Temperature changes becomes a very convincing exercise! (See Graph 3 Below).

Relevant CO2, Solar+Ocean and Holton Solar+Ocean+CO2 Model(HSOC M2) Correlations:

Correlations of CO2 with Global Temperatures from 1900 to 2008 are at high R= 0.870. (1 is perfect correlation, 0 is no correlation) and Rsquared= 0.759.

Correlations of the Holton Solar+Ocean Data with Global Temperatures from 1900 to 2008 are at high accuracy R=0.745 and Rsquared= 0.556.

Correlations of the Holton Solar+Ocean+CO2 Model(HSOC M2) with Global Temperatures from 1900 to 2008 are very high accuracy R= 0.932 and Rsquared= 0.807.

The following logical factors were used in a test to see if they correlated with global temperature from 1900 to 2008 inclusive: CO2, Yearly Number of AA Magnetic Storms above 40nT, Solar Mean Max Sunspot Strength for each Solar Cycle, Earth's Yearly Magnetic Rate of Change in Declination[Solar related], SOI (Southern Oscillation Index [Measure of strength of El-Nino & La Nina Southern Oscillation], Indian Ocean Dipole[Measure of strength of Similar Oscillations in The Indian Ocean], & Pacific Ocean PDO[Measure of strength of Similar Oscillations in the North Pacific Ocean].

The following factors were selected in the HSOC M2 Model for their Moderate to High Correlations [All Ocean factors are at least at a 5% sig level (95% sig level) and all Solar and CO2 factors are at a 1% (99% sig level or better)] with Global Temperature Changes, and were then used to find the closest HSOC M2 Model correlation to the 1900 to 2008 Yearly Global Temperature Changes.

(a) Yearly CO2 values were found to be highest influence in the model at an influence of 48.0%,

(b) AA Yearly Number of Magnetic Storms Greater than 40nT was at 26.6% influence,

(c) While Yearly Solar Cycle Mean Max Sunspots for each Solar Cycle came in at a 6.9% influence,

(d) And, Earth's Yearly Magnetic Rate of Change in Declination(Solar Related) at 12.6% influence,

(e) Indian Ocean Dipole (My measurement of Dipole) at a 1.7% influence,

(f) And finally, Pacific Ocean PDO (My measuement of PDO) at a 3.1% influence.

This means that these results show that the Solar and Ocean influence the Global temperature changes at a combined influence of 52%, which is greater than the CO2 influence at 48%.

These figures show convincingly (in my opinion) that the CO2 influence is much less than the IPCC report suggested (They suggest in the last report that the CO2 influence on Global temperature changes is at around 90%, compared to 48% influence that I found here).......And conversely, that Solar Effects are much more significant than found in the IPCC report. In fact the percentages are almost the same for both CO2 and Solar. While, this HSOC M2 model shows that solar and ocean influences combined slightly outweigh the CO2 influence on Global Temperature changes from 1900 to 2008.

These results strongly suggest to me that there is much more flexability in the whole Earth Ecological, Temperature & Climate System than envisiged in the last IPCC report.......And that the future Global Ocean, Land and Combined temperatures could move either up, or down, or stay at similar levels for long periods.......And most likely do all three regularly, depending on the Ocean and Solar influence changes, which will tend to overide any CO2 effects for both short & long periods of time.

These results also suggest strongly that both Climate Change debating camps have some merit in their arguments, and that there is much room for a compromise of both beliefs (And the results also back up many of the views expressed in my earlier 2004 article on this subject, found below at the end of this new article).

But, that we should have a much broader earth planning strategy, including plans for temperature rise, or temperature fall, or more likely both temperature movements regularly occurring in the future. The results show that cleaner technologies for power and industry is still needed, however, a compromise approach would be better served with industry & developing countries.......And, that the earth's problem is not as urgent in fixing as some alarmists would have us believe. Too much urgency in developing countries and even in some developed countries will cause more problems than those being fixed (eg. bio-fuels and world food shortages and skyrocketing food prices problems).

In saying this, any better environmental approaches are always welcome......And, we must ensure that we keep the earth clean and green at all times, and prevent pollution.......And, kept from any large scale native vegetation clearances.......And, that we ensure the protection of human and all living species of animal, bird, fish, etc.

The results also show that urgent research needs to be placed into Solar Research Areas and their effects on Global Temperature. This Solar Research Area seems to have been put in the background with the current strong emphasis on CO2 only type research. (Volcanic effects are also of high importance & can also, of course, have significant effects on Global Temperatures, these can not be planned for in any eventuality, and are therefore not discussed here. Again more research into these effects should also be planned.)

Of note also, are the factors of a recent year Global Temperature levelling off & short period Global Temperature cooling trend. These recent factors also tend to add confirmation that the HSOC M2 Statistical Model is a very valid and realistic model of the Global Temperature variations that are occurring.

The following are the three relevant (as also shown in the introduction) graphs that convincingly show how a combination of the two major players found in the HSOC M2 Model have a very strong relationship with Global Temperatures changes from 1900 to 2008.

The temptation looking at the first two graphs is to assume (as many do) that Solar-Ocean effects seem to be more closely associated with the Global Temperature Trace (and hence, the main influence of the 2 factors) until around 1988 (Graph 2), and that after around 1988, CO2 seems to have taken over as being more closely associated with the Global Temperature Trace (Graph1). However, it must be remembered that both factors, Solar-Ocean & CO2 in the model remain at the same "HSOC M2" model input amounts during the whole period from 1900 till 2008.......And to therefore gain such a high correlation & such a high degree of "graph visual fit", must be at around the same influence throughout the whole 1900 to 2008 period.

Appendix: Global Temperature Forecast Ranges from the IPCC and HSOC M2 Model for the Year 2100:

Thanks to Lindsay Smail of Geelong Weather Services for help in Constructing the Graphs

3. Ocean data from my own analysis of sea surface temperature anomoly charts found in "El Nino Southern Oscillation & Climate Variability": CSIRO: 1998: Allan, Lindsay & Parker & at http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/

{*NB: This article and research is NOT supported or financed by any industry, lobby group or any other group whatsoever)

This article and contents are copyright: Ian Holton 2008. Small parts or graphs from this article can be reproduced providing that they clearly state that they were obtained from the web article "Holton Weather Statistical Global Temperature Model HSOC M2 shows convincing evidence that Global Temperature changes from 1900 to 2008 are equally linked to 2 Major Factors -Namely Solar-Ocean and CO2 Changes". Ian Holton: 19th April 2008, from the http://www.holtonweather.com site.

[Notes: While I have worked for 25 years with the Bureau of Meteorology as a weather forecaster, and I now provide short and long-range weather forecasting for the Australian Agricultural Community, I do not claim to be an expert on the Greenhouse Effect or Global Warming. This short discussion paper is just written for the general interest of lay persons and to provide some links for folk wanting to look further into these phenomenon. My viewpoint on these matters is to keep an open mind and to take note of any material that appears to be of interest and which has a reasonably sound scientific base as its base. I always take a viewpoint of looking after the environment as best I can regardless of any Greenhouse Effect & any Global warning.]

Global warming is a subject that appears to bring out either "black or white" viewpoints on the so called "greenhouse warming CO2 effect" from scientists and lay-persons alike. Most people fit into either the "black" or the "white" opinion areas, but very few people seem to fit into the "grey" opinion category.

This very short article is designed not to promote any particular viewpoint, it is designed as a discussion starter and thought promoter. It is worthwhile often to research all the differing ideas and make up your own mind on any topic, rather than blindly following someone else's opinion, without looking at the other side of the argument. Often, the answer lies in the middle of the "black and white" opinion on any topic, and may turn out to be some shade of grey.

Examples of the different web viewpoints can be found on various web-sites eg. "One Big Village" http://www.onebigvillage/content.asp?topicID=70%obv1=msnh an pro Greenhouse Warming opinion web site; to the reverse, "Opinionet-Bob Webster site" http://opinionet.com.staff/bobwebster/globalwarmingseries04.shtm against Greenhouse Warming opinion web site. There are myriads of web-sites showing both extreme "each end of the scale" opinions on Greenhouse Warming. Just place "Greenhouse Effect Global Warming" in your favourite search engine and see all the sites that appear. One must be careful here, as some of the web-sites are pushing certain personal, corporate and research wheel-barrows, and are therefore biased towards a certain opinion/result. At a quick read all sites can be present very convincing arguments in favour of their particular viewpoint.

While examples of lay-person contrasting opinion, can be found in some of the letters to the editor of various agricultural weekly journals, eg. " Climatologists worldwide keep warning about what is happening...Australia is drying out and getting hotter, and doing so even faster in the past 50 years" (Tony Doherty, Cundletown NSW: Stock Journal 6th September 2004) a pro-Greenhouse warning opinion...One can look around at the current drought ravaged country of Australia, with low dam inflows and many farmers facing unfortunate ruin, and agree with Tonys comments.

Then we can hear the reverse view-point, "" I grew up in the Mallee and in recent years we have seen heat waves and droughts that were typical of the late 1930's and 1940's, when we saw half the country blow away...There has always been climate change, from the Ice Age to the tropics and vice versa." (Jack McCague, Kyabram VIC: Weekly Times, September 2004) an against greenhouse warming opinion...One can see quickly on a map of growing season rainfall in Australia in the first half of last century that extended dry periods and drought were more common than in the second half of the century. And in the 1930s and 1940s five dryish/drought seasons in a row were common and many farmers were forced off the land by these dry periods (and the effects of the depression), and agree with Jacks comments.

As I have stated previously, this article does not set out to push any particular bandwagon, but just to look at some of the various opinions.

A good website showing surface temperature changes can be seen on http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/graphs . Most of these graphs show a warming during the last 50 to 100 years of around .3 to .5C. This warming is significant in a global temperature time scale of 50 to 100 years..

CO2, the stated principal cause of global warming greenhouse effect , has increased at a steady rate during this period. This CO2 increase does not follow the less steep temperature warming shown before 1950 and the more rapid temperature warming after 1950, but in general matches the global warming trends.

The sunspot cycle & solar model have also been used to explain the temperature increase. They match reasonably well with an increase of sunspot maximum levels at the sunspot maximum period which occurs every 10 to 11 years. This sunspot maximum has been increasing irregularly during the past 100 years. This could also be claimed to be a cause of global warming. A period called the "Maunder Minimum" of sunspot activity when little or no sunspot activity was evident back in the 1600's was claimed as the cause of a sharp global cooling, and the cause of a year when the Northern Hemisphere "had no summer".

An increase in site specific surface temperature records have also been blamed on the city heat island effect around larger towns and cities. This Urban heat effect has increased as the population has in turn increased during the past 100 years. There is some evidence that this "heat island" effect has indeed caused such an increase in temp records at many sites. Some recent satellite recorded sea, land & atmosphere temperature records do in fact show a less defined global warming trend.

The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia has a detailed paper on "The Greenhouse Effect and Climate". This article contains quite a few graphs showing temperature changes, CO2 changes, sunspot number changes, volcanic eruption effects, etc, etc over thousands of years, and is a useful site to view at http://www.bom.au/info/climate/change/gallery/19.shtml .

While a John Daly site containing an interesting contrasting viewpoint paper is , "Days of Sunshine", at http://www.vision.net.au%Edaly/solar.htm . This paper shows temperature and sunspot activity graphs going back to the year 900. This shows that global temperature back in the "Medieval Optimum" times was much higher than recent global temperatures have been.

The next ten to twenty years will provide the real evidence as to which way our global temperature is heading. If the temperature increases steadily one can jump on the CO2 increase Greenhouse Global Warming bandwagon. If the global temperature decreases one can assume that imminent forecast decrease in solar activity & hence global temperature is the more important factor in the earth's temperature variation. However, both factors may well play a role in the whole argument, and possibly the temperature will even off to more of a plateau effect. Or, maybe a large volcanic eruption or two may even complicate the equation?

Meanwhile, should we sit and do nothing? Obviously not, for even if the sunspot theory proves to be the more correct one, we should strive always to stop polluting the earth and it's atmosphere. The preservation of native forests and the planned re-planting of native trees, shrubs & grasses can only improve the earth's environment for man, bird, plant & animal. And more efficient water usage and farming practices can only benefit mankind as a whole by increasing quality food production and inproving the health of our rivers, soils, man and all living creatures. After all it is a God given command to look after the earth and all things upon it.