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AUSTRALIAN BUSH FORECASTING AIDS:

Signs that rainfall may be coming shortly to your area

Red in the morning, shepherds warning.

Ants building high mounded ant-holes & moving eggs up on fence posts

Black clouds of flying ant swarms above treetops

Rings around moon and sun

Water birds nesting higher around dams & rivers

Grandmothers/ Grandfathers arthritis playing up

Many large wood moths out in the evening

Black cockatoos flying from hills to coast, or to the east

Springs starting to flow when the weather is dry

Large numbers of March flies hatching out early

Native tea-trees with a large amount of summer flowering

Rabbits & foxes breeding well

Plovers arriving earlier than normal

Flourish of new growth & heavy flowering on gum trees

Fog in Murray River valley on the 27th March in SA

Bark falling heavily from gum trees

Emus laying eggs means rain coming in a few weeks

Lizards sitting on the top of fence posts or in trees (Facing the east in SA Mallee)

Local are kangaroos found in areas that they don't normally move through

A full moon can bring a heavy storm in summer & a severe frost in winter

New moon period approaching means a higher chance of rain

Good rains near the New Moon period, indicate good rains for the next month

Huntsman spiders moving inside the house, means rain in a couple of weeks

Low cloud coming from NE, but High cirrus cloud streaming in from the NW

Wind direction from SE or NW on the equinox means a good season ahead

Winter type rains will start when the last leaf drops off the fig or apricot tree

Spiders silk webs floating in the air, and catching on trees, grass & fence-wire

Mice and rats moving into and/or nesting in roofs and high places

The soil becoming cracked and powdery in large areas

Galahs or corellas in large flocks, and when circling wildly overhead

Floods in Indian sub-continent mean floods in Australia in 2 to 4 months time

Winter rains will not start until 4 to 6 weeks after the last tropical cyclone off Western Australia

Good fishing in the sea, good season on the land

Kookaburras laughing more than usual or laughing in the middle of the day

Dogs and cats sleeping on their backs with legs in the air

Water hens in large numbers in any area that there are normally only a few or none

Moon to the south of the sun, and when the moon is an upside down U shape

Tea Trees in large flowering

Mallee trees flowering prolifically

Stinkwort flowering period is nearly ended

Kangaroos with Joeys in pouch

Swallows flying low over water

The arrival of Goat Moths

Curlews saying "Mopoke" at night

Plovers active and noisy

Low cloud coming from NE & High cloud coming from NW

Castellanus Towers like castles showing in the morning sky

Airplane contrails remaining in sky for short periods

Mallee Fowl cleaning out nests earlier than normal

Ducks and swans nesting high around farm dams

Ring around the full moon means rains in 1 to 4 weeks time

Willy Wag-tails whistling & nesting in sheds

Dust hanging in the air behind cars/trucks

When the hair on draught horses tails fans out

Rabbit burrows being cleaned and dug out under bushes

Milky Way aligned North to South

Cob-webs in Rain Gauge

Frequent Whirlwinds

Currawongs warbling

Noises at night in the bush are louder than normal

Box trees good flowering and good growth means good rainfall next year

Stinkwort weed flowering means the Autumn/Winter rainfall break is coming soon

New Moon is standing on its end at 5 to 5pm when looking at it like a clock face like means only a few showers or dryish weather till the next New Moon. U-shape "Cupped" New Moon also "holds water in like a cup" & little rain results till the next New Moon

Rain/ Weather on 27th June each year, suggests Rain/Weather for the next 7 weeks ahead (Siebenschlafer:German folk-lore)

Crows flying high in the sky

Mallee trees dropping oil onto the ground in late Summer/Autumn means sealing up ground to conserve moisture for drought

Dust devils turning clockwise means rain ahead...and anticlockwise means fine weather ahead

Bees very active Autumn means poor Spring rains: Bees not very active Autumn means good Spring rains

New Moon or Full Moon, together with an Apogee or Perigee of the moon, occurring on the same date suggests bad weather, maybe even storms and/ or floods

When the old ewes are cranky while shearing them, and especially if they kick on the long blow (the long cut along the back and length of the fleece)

When gum leaves have a glossy appearance

Compiled from by Ian Holton from information supplied by many farmers, with thanks.

(Copyright: Ian Holton, 2007. However, these can be printed with a note clearly stating that they are from the http://www.holtonweather.com.au website. However, they can not be copied and re-published for commercial purposes unless permission is given by Ian Holton of Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd)

RECENT & CURRENT VALIDATION OF ANY BUSH FORECASTING AIDS:

(Note *Any internet folk are welcome to add their Bush Forecasting Aid experiences to this list. Please email to Ian Holton at holton7@senet.com.au and your contribution will be acknowledged with your name & added to this list)

Validation 1. The "Holton Weather Tree" outside my office window at Nairne:

In 2005, I noticed in May:

The biggest gum flowering ever on the "Holton Weather Tree", an old Gum Tree outside my office window, at Nairne in the Eastern Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia:

Result expected = A Very Good Rainfall Growing Season 2005:

Result found = A Very Good Rainfall Growing Season 2005 = Correct Bush Forecasting Aid.

Validation 2. In 2006, I noticed in January: A huge gum leaf drop from the "Holton Weather Tree", and all other gum trees around the area. In fact the biggest gum leaf drop I have ever seen:

In 2006, I also noticed in May:

The smallest gum flowering ever on the "Holton Weather Tree",

Result expected = A Very Poor Rainfall Growing Season 2006:

Result so far = Very Bad Drought in Growing Season 2006 = Correct Bush Forecasting Aid.

Validation 3. In 2007, I noticed in January & February: Reasonably Good to Good new growth on the "Holton Weather Tree".

In 2007, It appears from Mid April that there will be a reasonably good to very good flowering. It will be more noticeable in May 2007 when the flowers come out:

May 2007: Moderate looking growth but not that all convincing.

Result expected = Average Growing Season, maybe Below Average Growing Season.

[NB: I do not use these Bush Forecasting Aids in my computer forecasting models or forecasts sent to clients. But I do view them with a great deal of interest, as there is a lot of truth in many of these listed on the Bush Forecasting Aids list.]

The article below is likely to be of great interest to anyone interested the Australian Bush Forecasting Aids. It is re-printed here from the Holton Weather News page:

AUSTRALIAN SPRINGS AND SOAKS COMMENCE IN THE DRY AUTUMN WEATHER, AND THEN GOOD RAINS FOLLOW WITHIN 1 TO 4 WEEKS! IS THIS TRUE? AND IF SO, WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN? WHAT SPRINGS HAVE COMMENCED IN APRIL 2007?(Issued 21st April 2007) (RESULTS 1st May 2007)

As an agricultural weather forecaster I have heard from many farmers of Springs commencing from 1 to 4 weeks in the dry weather before the Australian Autumn Rainfall Break. These reports have come from many sources around Australia. And many farmers use these springs as a guide to when the Autumn Rainfall Break may occur on their properties. It would be easy to dismiss these occurences as co-incidence and "old-wives tales", but they are so persistent that this year 2007 I have set to see if Springs starting to flow in the dry weather, do in fact, fortell the timing of the coming Autumn Break!

Why would Springs and Soaks commence to run 1 to 4 weeks before the Autumn Break, when no rainfall has apparently entered the groundwater system. An air pressure drop is the obvious answer! However, on most occasions the Springs commence to run when the air pressure is high or fairly normal. The answers are hard to find, as the phenomenon is so common and widespread in Australian geographical locations?

A list of the current known Springs and Soaks running up to the 21st April 2007 appears below:

UPDATE OF SPRING/SOAK COMMENCING LIST: Updated List 22nd April 2007-Results 1st May 2007:

(1) Horsham, Western Wimmera, Victoria: Springs/Soak up approx 5/4/07...getting stronger 12/4/07...

RESULT: 67 TO 89MMS RAIN IN HORSHAM AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007.

(2) Meadows, Eastern Adelaide Hills: Springs in deeper gullies started flowing early April 2007.

RESULT: 140MM TO 170MM OF RAIN IN MEADOWS AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(3) Granite Belt, QLD: Springs on Low side of a property Granite Downs QLD 1st April approx 2007.

RESULT: 20 TO 35MM IN REGION IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(4) Toowoomba Area, QLD: Spring in dam started flowing and filling up Dam approx say 11th April 2007.

RESULT: 10 TO 15MM IN REGION IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(5) Springs up and running well Coleraine, SW Western Coast/Plains, Victoria. Sometime before 16th April 2007.

RESULT: 20 TO 40MM IN GENERAL AREA TO 30TH APRIL 2007 AND MORE SIG RAINS FORECAST FOLLOWING WEEK

(6) Running Springs SE of West Coast, VIC, for past 3 to 4 weeks before 19th April 2007 ie. 22nd to 29th March 2007.

RESULT: 15 TO 30MM IN GENERAL REGION TO 30TH APRIL 2007 AND MORE SIG RAINS FORECAST FOLLOWING WEEK

(7) Springs running for 2 to 3 weeks Corryong, VIC, before 20th April 2007 ie. 30th March to 6th April 2007.

RESULT: 77MM AT CORRYONG IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(8) Springs up and running 2 weeks prior to 21st April 2007, near Elgin, Beachport, SE Coast, SA. ie. 7th April 2007.

RESULT: 15 TO 25MM IN AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007 AND MORE SIG RAINS FORECAST FOLLOWING WEEK

(9) Springs up and running at Bredbo, near Canberra, ACT on 20th April 2007.

RESULT: 20 TO 40MM IN AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(10) Springs up and running near Lake Bolac, Western Plains, VIC in past few days before the 22nd April 2007

RESULT: 15 TO 30MM IN AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007 AND MORE SIG RAINS FORECAST FOLLOWING WEEK

There is a good list from very widespread localities.......And now the results pretty well speak for themselves...ie. The springs have made a very accurate prediction in virtually all areas!

A big thank you to all who have contributed to this list ...Any more additions to the list, please email to holton7@bigpond.com

I plan to do this list every Autumn in future, to keep a permanent record of these events, for anyone who may be interested in this apparently mysterious and very interesting Springs & Rainfall Water Connection.

(Copyright: Ian Holton, 2007. However, these can be printed with a note clearly stating that they are from the http://www.holtonweather.com website. However, they can not be copied and re-published for commercial purposes unless permission is given by Ian Holton of Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd)

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