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HOLTON WEATHER NEWS ITEMS:

ITEM 12: " A NEW Holton Weather Long Range South Eastern Australian (SA/VIC/NSW/TAS & SE QLD Areas) Rainfall Index (HGSRI) shows a Strong Likehood of a Return to a "Wetter" Growing Season Rainfall Cycle in the Next Few Years.......This is "Wetter" Rainfall Cycle is expected to continue for approximately 45 years duration."

Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd: 6th August 2008

INTRODUCTION: Most of South Eastern Australia (ie SA/VIC/NSW/TAS & SE QLD) has experienced a long dry-drought Growing Season Rainfall spell since around 1994(apart from parts of NSW-SE QLD which had one wet Growing Seasonin 1998). This dry-drought Growing Season was especially apparent in the years 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006 & 2007.

The current call from many climate experts, & from much of the media & politicians, is that this dry-drought is "Global Warming induced", and will continue onwards and get worse as the years go by as predicted "Global Warming" intensifies. Having intensely studied this current dry rainfall pattern & past climate & rainfall records, I am of a strong opinion that this dry-drought period is just a part of natural recurring rainfall cycles. These cycles are mainly run by ocean currents and associated sea surface temperature areas that occur around the globe. These ocean currents & ocean sea surface temperature areas run in regular cycles, as can be clearly seen in the 2 examples shown below in Graph 1, of the AMO North Atlantic Ocean Index and the PDO Pacific North & Pacific Ocean Index.

GRAPH 1: YEARLY AMO & PDO INDEX 1901 to 2008

(*PLEASE NOTE THAT AMO & PD0 VALUES HAVE BEEN MULTIPLIED BY 10 TO EXPAND THE GRAPH FOR VIEWING PURPOSES)

All Ocean Areas around the globe have such regular cycles running within their water bodies.......And all Oceans are not isolated water bodies, but are all interconnected by surface & under-sea ocean currents. So, no oceans act on the climate in isolation, eg. http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/8q_1.html {Citation: Pidwirny, M. (2006). "Surface and Subsurface Ocean Currents: Ocean Current Map". Fundamentals of Physical Geography, 2nd Edition.}

It is these changing ocean temperature cycles that can be utilized to formulate an Long Range Rainfall Index for SE Australia. This NEW HGSRI Index was formulated by combining Ocean Indices and Ocean Temperature Areas in the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian and Southern Oceans, to produce a combined HGSRI Index. This HGSRI Index allows one to see at which part of the major and minor rainfall cyle(s) we are currently moving through, and hence, how we should "travel" in a general sense rainfall wise in the years ahead in the SE Australian areas.

The HGSRI Model: The HGSRI Model produced, as outlined in the Introduction above, tracks the SE Australian Rainfall Patterns quite well, clearly showing, (1) the last "Big Dry" 13 year period from around 1933 to 1946 years inclusive, and, (2) the last "Big Wet" from 1947 to 1993 years inclusive, with, (3) the very wettest 3 years spell of the last century, clearly shown in the 1973 to 1975 years inclusive period. Also, (4), the current "14 Year Dry-Drought" since 1994. (5) The current 2006 and 2007 year and onwards very poor rainfall period is also shown by the HGSRI 3 year Mean Index. This last 14year period is noted to be at slightly lower levels than that atained by the Index in the last "Big Dry" 1933 to 1946 period. This matches the actual Growing Season rainfall result quite well, which shows that this current dry-drought period which is one of the worst since 1900. (It should be noted that Rainfall and Ocean, and hence HGSRI records are not as reliable in the pre-1925 period)

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GRAPH 2: HOLTON WEATHER "3 YEAR RUNNING MEAN SE AUSTRALIAN AREAS (SA/VIC/NSW) GROWING SEASON RAIN INDEX" (HGSRI) 1901 to 2008[BLUE MORE SMOOTH DARKER LINE] Versus SE AUSTRALIAN ACTUAL MEAN GROWING SEASON RAINFALL 1901 to 2008(Est 2008)[GREEN LESS SMOOTH LIGHTER LINE]

Of greatest interest is the last section of the chart since 1987. Here we have entered the second of the "Big Dry" cycles of the past 110 years. It is quite clearly shown on the Graph2, that we have a very similar HGSRI trace from 1987 to that found in first half of last century, with, (a) a preliminary dip and a preliminary peak in 1927 and 1930 respectively, much the same as the preliminary dip and a preliminary peak in this "Big Dry" period shown at 1987 and 1992, and, (b) a double trough at 1937 and 1941, much the same as the double trough at 1999 and 2006 in this current "Big Dry" period.

Now, the last century "Big Dry" period went from 1933 to 1946, a period of 14 years. While the current "Big Dry" period has gone from 1994 to 2008 so far, a period of 15 years. While this is already one year longer than the last "Big Dry" period, it should be noted that the peaks and troughs of this current "Big Dry" period are a little longer lasting than during the last century "Big Dry", so it would be expected that the period of this "Big Dry" would be a little longer lasting than the last century "Big Dry" period.

However, having said that, the HGSRI index is now on the way upwards, and it does appear that we are going to see an increase in Growing Season Rainfall sooner rather than later, and that the "Big Dry" has just about run it's course!

Now, the even better news, is that these major cycles are running at around 65 years in duration in the last 110 years....... And, during the last century peak cycle, we had the Index mostly above zero from 1947 to 1993, a period of 46 years length where most Growing Seasons produced Average or Above Average Growing Season Rainfalls in SE Australia! So, when we reach the zero mark on our upward HGSRI cycle travels shortly(If all goes according to the plan.......And which does appears very likely), we will have an expected approximate 45years of mostly Average to Above Average Growing Season Rainfall ahead of us!

There will still be dry-drought years obviously, but they would be expected to be in the vast main single year droughts only, as in the last 1947 to 1993 "Big Wet" period, eg, 1957, 1959, 1967, 1982, 1972, 1977, 1982, all single dry-drought years only (1976-1977 could be said to be an isolated exception to the rule with a 2 year Growing season dry-drought). So in a "Wetter Cycle Period", we should only get around 7 or 8 years dry-drought over a 46 year period!.......,A vast difference & improvement from the current 6 or 7 years dry-drought in the last 14 years "Dry-Drought" period since 1994!

And it should be stressed, that even in a "1947 to 1993 "Big Wet" type period", that we appear to be moving into shortly, not all years and months will receive Average or Above Average rainfall. In such a "wetter climate cycle" that we appear soon to be entering, the majority of years and months would experience Average or Above Average rainfall.......In sharp contrast to the "1933 to 1946 "Big Dry" type period", or the "1994 to 2007-08 "Big Dry type period", when the majority of years and months were experienced as Below Average Rainfall . While we have had some hints on a more normal wetter-type winter in the July to Mid-August period in 2008, in some SE Australian areas, and also with westerly lows and fronts extending northwards back to their more normal winter positions. The real start of the "Big Wet" period is still in the furture, as we are only just starting to run upwards to the predicted next rainfall cycle peak........And in these matters, I have given my clients an expectation & prediction of the first few months of the real start of the "Big Wet" cycle, and an expectation & prediction of the further more general & widespread consolidation period of the "Big Wet" Cycle.......But, unfortunately, I cannot print them in this article, as the these more detailed times & months for any forecast rainfalls are available to Holton Weather clients only.......For obvious reasons!

So in SUMMARY, the NEW HGSRI World Ocean Based Model Index appears, when seen in conjuction with the clearly shown Cyclic Rainfall Patterns, to strongly indicate that the current "Big Dry" period is part of a Cyclic Ocean Climate Phenomenon and is not caused by "Global Warming". Further, the HGSRI Index appears to show quite clearly that we are near the end of the current "Big Dry" period, and that we should return to a lengthy period of mostly Average to Above Average Growing Season Rainfall in all SE Australian areas shortly. This "wetter period" should last for around 45 year duration. This more hopeful news should give good encouragement for many Australian farming, irrigation and agricultural enterprises, for the dire current the Murray-Darling River situation, as well as for the general Australian public............(Which must be tiring of hearing so much bad news lately in the media, on the TV screen & in the Newspapers!).

GRAPH 3: HOLTON WEATHER "3 YEAR RUNNING MEAN SE AUSTRALIAN AREAS (SA/VIC/NSW) GROWING SEASON RAIN INDEX" (HGSRI) 1990 to 2008[BLUE MORE SMOOTH DARKER LINE] Versus SE AUSTRALIAN ACTUAL MEAN GROWING SEASON RAINFALL 1990 to 2008(Est 2008)[GREEN LESS SMOOTH LIGHTER LINE]

Appendix: (a) There are also shorter 7 to 11 year cycles embedded in the larger cycles of the HGSRI, but these are not discussed in this paper.

(b) Also, it should be noted that there is also more hopeful news for the Australian farming and general community on the temperature side of the Climate Change subject as well.......With Global Temperature levelling off, & likely even Global Temperature cooling, also expected to continue into the next 30 to 40 year period at least. See NEW Climate change research by Holton Weather "Solar & Ocean changes are shown to be the dominant drivers of Global Temperature Trends, with CO2 playing a more minor role than previously thought, according to the Holton Weather NEW REVISED NEW Statistical Global Temperature Model HSOC M3! (These latest results show that Global Cooling now has a distinct possibility of occurring during and for the next approximate 30 to 40 year period at least)" at: http://www.holtonweather.com/global.htm

Acknowledgements of information sources:

AA Indices: ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/RELATED_INDICES/AA_INDEX/

Global Temperatures: http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html

AMO Ocean Index data: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/amon.us.long.data

PDO Ocean Index data: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Other Ocean data: Calculated by Ian Holton of Holton Weather Forecasting

SE Australian Rainfall data: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

CO2 data: http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Warming_Look.htm and http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-keel.htm and several other sources.

(*NB: This article and research is NOT supported or financed by any industry, lobby group or any other group whatsoever)

This article and contents are copyright: Ian Holton 2008. Small parts or graphs from this article can be reproduced providing that they clearly state that they were obtained from the web article " NEW Holton Weather Extra Long Range South Eastern Australian (SA/VIC/NSW/TAS & SE QLD Areas) Rainfall Index (HGSRI) shows a Strong Likehood of a Return to a "Wetter" Rainfall Cycle in the Next Few Years. This is "Wetter" Rainfall Cycle is expected to continue for approximately 45 years duration." Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd: 6th August 2008, from the http://www.holtonweather.com site.

ITEM 11: Severe cold spells, storms and record snow falls, Northern Hemisphere Winter 2008! Are Global Temperatures Showing Signs of Cooling during the Northern Hemisphere Winter-Southern Hemisphere Summer 2007 to 2008?

Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd: 26th January 2008

It has been snowing in Shanghai, China today, an unusual event in itself, however it is only one of many extreme cold events in the Northern Hemisphere that have caught my attention of late during this 2007-2008 Northern Hemisphere Winter, such as the following examples;

(1) Adelaide Advertiser, 23rd January 2008: Beijing, China, "Unusually heavy snowfall in Central China was blamed for 15 deaths...Frigid temperatures caused pipes to burst leading to water shortages for thousands of residents...Powerlines snapped under the weight of ice and snow. Heavy snow damaged thousands of homes."

Also this report came through as well: "China was a blur of white when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image on January 21, 2008. Unusually heavy snow had fallen over central and eastern China, reported BBC News, and this combined with a light pall of haze and the thick bank of clouds that covers the lower edge of the image left the landscape an indistinct white. Cities form tiny dark spots in the snow, and water in the Huang (Yellow) River and the Weishan and Luoma Reservoirs similarly stand out against the field of white."

(2) Snow in Bagdhad, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, for the first time in living memory in Mid January 2008!

(3) Severe Cold Wave kills many in Northern India on 22nd January 2008!

(4) Severe cold and snowfalls hits Afghanhistan from Dec 2007 to January 2008!

(5) A winter storm walloped the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California along with much of Nevada in the first week of 2008. Wind gusts of more than 100 miles per hour were reported in California, Utah, and Nevada; hundreds of miles of power lines were toppled. More than 6 feet of snow fell in parts of the mountains, and heavy rains were responsible for floods in Nevada that forced several thousand people to evacuate their homes.

(6) A major snow storm slid across the United States over the weekend of December 15, 2007, laying down ice and snow across the country from the Rockies to the Great Lakes. More than a foot of snow fell in some places, canceling air travel and causing some states to forbid all but emergency vehicles from being on the roads. This was the second major storm to wallop the country’s mid-section in December; the first arrived at the start of the month.

(7) The first heavy snowstorm in the USA is noted here.

(8) "NEW YEAR (2008) BIG FREEZE IS COMING Monday December 31,2007: BRITAIN faces one of its bitterest winters for 100 years, with temperatures set to plummet to -17C (1.4F), forecasters warned last night. The New Year will begin with a freezing cold snap that will sweep across the country, causing “havoc” in its wake.And forecasters predict an even icier Arctic blast will strike later in the month to bring the coldest recorded temperatures in 20 years. Sleet and snow are expected in many parts over the next few days. And spells of freezing weather are set to last until the end of February."

(9) Northern Hemisphere: December Snow and Ice Report NDCC/NOAA.

Late Extra Reports:

(10) China cold snap severe snow weather again 27th January 2008. And China again with mounting damage and death toll from snowstorms and cold on the 28th January 2008!

(11) Southern California USA cold snap severe snow and storms 25th January 2008.

(12) Greece also, on 30th January 2008, heavy snow and strong winds disrupt flights, affect shipping, cut power.

(13) Again USA is hit by more severe snowstorms and cold on 30th January 2008!

(14) Oregon, USA, record snow levels! 4th February 2008.

(15) Northern Hemisphere snow levels highest since 1966: 9th February 2008 report.

(16) China again worst snow storms in 50 years: 10th February 2008 report.

(17) World areas of recent global cooling: Amazing ice pictures from China, Greece and Estonia: 21st February 2008 report.

Now, while these examples do not prove that there is global cooling going on in the past few months, a look at the past 365day, 180day, 90day, 30day & 7 day Global Temperature anomolies shows that indeed there is a strong cooling tendency not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the Southern Hemisphere in the past few months.

365day global temperature anomoly:

180day global temperature anomoly:

90day global temperature anomoly:

30day global temperature anomoly:

7day global temperature anomoly:

You will see most areas of the globe are in the Above Average temperature anomoly on the 365day chart, decreasing markedly to most areas of the globe in the Average to Below Average temperature anomoly on the 90 and 30day global temperature anomoly. These are re-analysed NOAA research data, so they should be accurate recordings. (I am not sure if these charts will keep updating all the time... I suspect they will. But as at 26th January 2008, that is what they show).

It is interesting to see that solar sunspot and associated readings have been at an extended minimum for the past few months. And no sunspots have been visisble for extended periods. To check out how the sun looks today click on SOHO.

The current La-Nina circulation would also have an effect to cool the oceans and in turn the atmosphere to a certain extent. However, there appears to be also a general cooling of the oceans over the past 12 months also! The run into a likely new PDO phase may also be affecting global temperatures to an extent also.

December 2006 Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomolies

December 2007 Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomolies

All this data is early days and is certainly not proving anything conclusively, and it may just be a temporary cooling phase, but when associated with a extended Solar Sunspot minimum it is interesting global temperature phase. We shall watch the future solar and ocean and global temperature trends with interest. (Solar effects may also have a lag time of some months to years and we may be seeing effects of the previous slightly lower sunspot cycle number 23).

ITEM 10: Holton Weather Statistical Model Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for the 2007-2008 Season & Preliminary Forecasts for the 2008-2009 Season:

Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd

Disclaimer & Copyright: While care is taken in producing these forecasts and reports, no responsibility is taken for the use of them by the reader, or for the accuracy of these forecasts. These forecasts are copyright and may not be reproduced in any form or supplied to other persons without the authors's consent.

ITEM 9: Holton Weather Statistical Model Capital City Thunderstorm days Forecasts for the 2007-2008 Season & Preliminary Forecasts for the 2008-2009 Season:

Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd

Disclaimer & Copyright: While care is taken in producing these forecasts and reports, no responsibility is taken for the use of them by the reader, or for the accuracy of these forecasts. These forecasts are copyright and may not be reproduced in any form or supplied to other persons without the authors's consent.

ITEM 8:Holton Weather Statistical Model No. of Days of Max Temp >35C Forecast for Various Towns & Capital Cities for the 2007-2008 Season & Preliminary Forecasts for the 2008-2009 Season:

Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd

Disclaimer & Copyright: While care is taken in producing these forecasts and reports, no responsibility is taken for the use of them by the reader, or for the accuracy of these forecasts. These forecasts are copyright and may not be reproduced in any form or supplied to other persons without the authors's consent.

ITEM 7: A Statistical Model (HGT) for Forecasting Global Mean Temperature Change

Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd

[Published on the Holton Weather Web-Site on 6th August 2007. This is not a peer reviewed article and has not been submitted to any publication. It is presented by the author only for your interest and information.]

Abstract:

A statistical model is presented which identifies the four main consistent global temperature influences ie. Carbon Dioxide, Solar effects as measured by a lagged AA Index and Cosmic Ray measurements, and the El Nino/ La Nina phenomenon as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

This model was compiled from monthly data input of the 4 major input variables from January 1971 to March 2007 inclusive.

It was found during that period that the global sea temperature were correlated to the statistical model containing the four atmospheric variables to a high degree at the 99% significant level, of R=.890 and R2=.792. This thereby showed that the statistical model was able to predict 79.2% of the temperature variance in the 453 month period (36.3 years).

This statistical model presented showed that the various percentage influences on changes in global sea and land temperature for that period were approximately ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: CO2 44.2%, Lagged solar induced magnectic AA Index 21.4%, El Nino-La Nina ocean phenomenon 25.7%, and a Solar Cosmic Ray output of 8.7%.

By using a continued CO2 rise of similar to the last 10 to 20 years proportions, lagged and predicted AA Index & predicted Cosmic Ray values (Based on current and recent predictions of solar cyles 24 and 25 by NASAA & many others), and leaving the "unforecastable" El Nino/ La Nina future values at zero, a prediction of global sea and land temperatures was undertaken. This global sea and land temperature prediction showed a forecast levelling off of global sea and land temperatures during the next 1 to 5 years (ie 2008 to 2012), and a global sea and land temperature drop from then onwards to the end year of the global temperature forecasts(ie 2013 to 2020 inclusive).

Introduction & Model Methodology:

There has been much debate and controversy over the degree to which solar and CO2 effects have on the current past 100 years general slow global sea and land temperature warming. I therefore set out to see for myself what I could make of the whole affair by assembling a statistical computer model.

Input atmospheric data were gained or derived from various sources with many thanks, notably NCDC, NOAA; NDGC, NOAA, & BOM Australia.

This data was then assembled in a simple statistical computer program and the following results were discovered:

(a) That the CO2 data corelated in a highly positive manner with the same month Global Ocean and Land temperature Data from 1958 to 2007: The correlation was at a proven 99% significant level for 453 months.

(b) That the lagged mean monthly Solar Magnetic AA Index data (with a meaned lag of 4 to 15 years- a typical solar cycle ie. a 11 year solar cycle mean monthly AA data is used) correlated in a highly positive manner with the Global Ocean and Land Temperature Data: The correlation was at a proven 99% significant level for 453 months.

(c) That the lagged mean SOI [Southern Oscillation Index] (Used as a measure of the massive El Nino-La Nina Pacific Ocean phenomenon) (with a lag of 0 to 6 months- to gain a better 6 month average period of the SOI cycle) correlated well in an inverse negative relationship with the Global Ocean and Land Temperature Data:.The correlation was proven at a 99% significant level for 453 months.

(d) That the Solar Cosmic Ray input also correlated well in an inverse negative relationship with the Global Ocean and Land Temperature Data. The correlation was proven at a 99% significant level for 453 months.

A statistical model was then prepared using all 4 input variables. The input variables were all reduced or increased so they all reached approximately the same numerical value. These 4 inputs were then combined together into the various proportions of each that gave the best model correlation with Global and Ocean Mean temperatures for the 453 month period from January 1971 to March 2007.

This model showed the following 4 component influences on Global Mean Monthly Temperature in the formula::::::::::::: CO2 44.2%, Lagged AA Index 21.4%, El Nino-La Nina 25.7%, and Cosmic Rays 8.7%.

These results rhar show a CO2 influence of 44.2% are lower than the percentage influence on current Global Warming as suggested by the last IPCC report, and conversely these results show a greater total Solar component (AA Index+Cosmic Ray) of 30.1%, than is currently suggested by the last IPCC report.

The SOI (El Nino-La Nina) influence has a greater influence on sea temperatures than land temperatures, as would be expected. However, it was still found that this particular version, of the statistical model produced, correlated best with both global land and global sea mean monthly temperatures from January 1971 to March 2007.

The correlations with the Holton Global Temperature [HGT] Model over the 453 month period were: Global Ocean Temperatures: .89 ( Providing 79.2% of the temperature variations found), Global Land Temperatures: .65 (Providing 42.3% of the temperature variations found).

Other variations that are likely not accounted for by the Holton Model include Volcanic Dust effects, Other Ocean effects, Water Vapour variations, Methane and other Atmospheric Gas variations, Urban Heat with time influences, Other less known Solar effects, Planet Wobble variations, Land-Sea interactions, Land and Forest clearance, Population Increase, Ozone variations , Aerosol Particle variations, etc.

This HGT Model was then used as a base to look into the future to attempt to forecast Global Sea and Land Temperature trends.

Graph 1: Shows Past Global Mean Sea Temperatures to May 2007 and HGT Model predictions from April 2007 to December 2020

The predictions of the HGT assume a continuing CO2 increase at the current rate, and a return of the next 2 Solar Cycles 24 & 25 to similar values to those found in the lower solar output cycles of the early 1900's. These Solar forecasts are based on NASA and many other Solar Scientist current predictions of a return to lower Solar Output Cycles for Solar Cycles 24 & 25. The current later than expected start to Solar Cycle 24 tends to strongly confirm these Solar Predictions.

The HGT forecast Global Sea Mean Temperature shows a slow rise or flattening out of the rise until the end of year 2012, then a decrease from 2013 until the end of the year 2020 (The end year of this prediction). These forecast levels are back to the ocean temperature levels of the early 1990's. If, however Solar Output drops to levels similar to the Maunder Solar Minimum, as expected by some solar scientist groups, then the drop in temperatures would be much greater than those predicted by the HGT Model. Contrastingly, if the next two Solar Cycles are higher than forecast, then the temperatures would be higher than forecast by the HGT model. However, this latter scenario appears on current Solar Output data to be the least likely of the scenarios.

El Nino & La Nina changes will cause variations to the HGT results over the forecast period, but these future variations are not currently able to be predicted in advance.

Graph 2: Shows Past Global Mean Land Temperatures to March 2007 and HGT Model predictions from April 2007 to December 2020

The predictions of the HGT assume a continuing CO2 increase at the current rate, and a return of the next 2 Solar Cycles 24 & 25 to similar values to those found in the lower output cycles of the early 1900s. These Solar forecasts are based on NASA and many other Solar Scientist current predictions of a return to lower Solar Output Cycles for Solar Cycles 24 & 25. The current later than expected start to Solar Cycle 24 tends to strongly confirm these Solar Predictions.

The HGT forecast Global Land Mean Temperature shows a slow rise or flattening out of the rise until the end of year 2012, then a decrease from 2013 until the end of the year 2020 (The end year of this prediction). These levels are back to the land temperature levels of the early 1990's. If, however Solar Output drops to levels similar to the Maunder Solar Minimum as depicted by some solar scientist groups, then the drop in temperatures would be much greater than those predicted by the HGT Model. Contrastingly, if the next two Solar Cycles are higher than forecast, then the temperatures would be higher than forecast by the HGT model. However, this latter scenario appears on current Solar Output data to be the least likely of the scenarios.

El Nino & La Nina changes will cause variations to the HGT results over the forecast period, but these future variations are not currently able to be predicted in advance.

It should be noted that because of the meaned AA lag value of 4 to 15 years placed in the HGT Model, and of the high likelihood of CO2 levels continuing to rise at near an approximate similar rate to the last 10 to 20 years, then 2 of the main values of the HGT model will be inputted into the HGT Model at very close to the correct input values from 2007 to around the year 2015 [This is the mid-point year of the AA 4 to 15 year laggged mean data input values].

The CO2 temperature increase predictions are based on work by many other scientists and papers published around the globe. The amount of future warming due to the continued CO2 increase is not fully clear, and is based on many assumptions and inter-atmospheric connections. So, here I have just assummed that the current CO2 mean temperature component will continue to rise as it has in the past 10 to 20 years. It is of note, tha any increasing value in an approximate linear straight line will perform well in the HGT model, ie. Land clearance and population increase, etc, would also show similar good correllation to the CO2 good correlations with the current increasing Global Mean temperatures. However, most scientist seem to accept that CO2 is the main linear culprit, so here I am taking their viewpoint...mainly on trust!

Summary Comments:

The HGT statistical Model produced does show a very high correlation with the last 36.3 years of Mean Global Sea Surface Temperatures(at the 99% significant level), and a reasonably high correlation with the last 36.3 years of Mean Global Land Surface Temperatures (at the 99% significant level).

Using a statistical based model HGT, forecasts are made for the next 14 years of Global Sea and Land Mean Temperatures. These forecasts show a slow rise or flattening out of the rise of both Sea and Land Mean temperatures from the year 2007 until 2012. And a drop both Sea and Land Mean temperatures from the year 2013 until 2020 (The last year of the Model prediction) back to early 1990 levels. These HGT model forecast results found are caused by (a) the lag factors involved in the Solar Output (As measured by the AA Index), and (b) The overwhelming effect of the input of lower output Solar Cycles 24 & 25 as predicted by most NASA & most Solar Scientists. The current later than forecast start to Cycle 24 appears to strongly confirm these solar predictions.

The Lower Solar Cycle predictions would cause a "positively correlated to Global Sea and Land temperature AA Index" to decrease (Decreasing AA Magnetic Index means a drop in Solar Output of many Solar variables, and hence lower global temperatures); and a "negatively correlated to Global Sea and Land temperature Cosmic Ray input" to increase (Increasing Cosmic Rays have been shown to cause more low cloud coverage and hence more reflected Solar Input back to space, and therefore, lower global temperatures). These two variables are forecast to overwhelm any CO2 generated Global Temperature greenhouse gas warming in the next 14 years at least (The limit of the HGT model predictions). Some Solar predictions of a Maunder Minimum Solar Activity in the next two Solar Cycles would decrease these global temperature forecasts even further. There would therefore be a range of predicted Global Temperature outcomes from the HGT model depending on the decrease in strength of the Solar Cycles 24 and 25. The HGT forecast Global Ocean and Land Temperatures shown in the two graphs above are the result that would be expected to occur with a return to a Solar Cycle strength of early 1900's proportions. This would be a "middle of the road", but tending towards a somewhat conservative estimate of forecast weakening of Solar Cycle 24 and 25 by solar scientists.

This is what I have found on investigating the Global Warming phenomenon. There will no doubt be comment, argument and criticism over these HGT Model results & methodology, as there always is in papers generated during the current climate change debate. However, this is my valid contribution to the whole debate.......and I hope that the HGT Model results turns out to a be close to correct global ocean and land temperature forecast....... for the benefit of the earth, the environment and all people living on it.

References:

Solar Cycle 24-25 Predictions:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/PressRelease.html

http://www.opinioneditorials.com/guestcontributors/kroeten_20070727.html

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

http://protostar.aas.org/publications/baas/v35n3/spd2003/18.htm

http://www.solarcycle24.com/trend.htm

http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/Archibald.pdf

http://landscheidt.auditblogs.com/archives/17

Global Ocean & Land Temperature Data:

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html

http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Warming_Look.htm

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/g_timeseries.cgi

Solar AA, Sunspot & Cosmic Ray Data & Related Information:

ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/RELATED_INDICES/AA_INDEX/

ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/

http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/GEOMAG/image/aasspot.gif

http://i11.tinypic.com/5498h8g.jpg

http://motls.blogspot.com/2007/07/nir-shaviv-why-is-lockwood-and-frohlich.html

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Lockwood_and_Frolich_Review.pdf

ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/COSMIC_RAYS/

El Nino & La Nina: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI):

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml

Useful CO2 & Solar Climate Change Papers:

http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/07/09/two-new-articles-which-document-the-limitations

-of-the-multi-decadal-global-climate-model-predictions/ (NB: You will need to cut and paste these 2 lines together)

http://www.knmi.nl/VinkCMS/mmbase/attachments/?35031

ITEM 6: AUSTRALIAN SPRINGS AND SOAKS COMMENCE IN THE DRY AUTUMN WEATHER, AND THEN GOOD RAINS FOLLOW WITHIN 1 TO 4 WEEKS! IS THIS TRUE? AND IF SO, WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN? WHAT SPRINGS HAVE COMMENCED IN APRIL 2007?(Issued 21st April 2007) (RESULTS 1st May 2007)

As an agricultural weather forecaster I have heard from many farmers of Springs commencing from 1 to 4 weeks in the dry weather before the Australian Autumn Rainfall Break. These reports have come from many sources around Australia. And many farmers use these springs as a guide to when the Autumn Rainfall Break may occur on their properties. It would be easy to dismiss these occurences as co-incidence and "old-wives tales", but they are so persistent that this year 2007 I have set to see if Springs starting to flow in the dry weather, do in fact, fortell the timing of the coming Autumn Break!

Why would Springs and Soaks commence to run 1 to 4 weeks before the Autumn Break, when no rainfall has apparently entered the groundwater system. An air pressure drop is the obvious answer! However, on most occasions the Springs commence to run when the air pressure is high or fairly normal. The answers are hard to find, as the phenomenon is so common and widespread in Australian geographical locations?

A list of the current known Springs and Soaks running up to the 21st April 2007 appears below:

UPDATE OF SPRING/SOAK COMMENCING LIST: Updated List 22nd April 2007-Results 1st May 2007:

(1) Horsham, Western Wimmera, Victoria: Springs/Soak up approx 5/4/07...getting stronger 12/4/07...

RESULT: 67 TO 89MMS RAIN IN HORSHAM AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007.

(2) Meadows, Eastern Adelaide Hills: Springs in deeper gullies started flowing early April 2007.

RESULT: 140MM TO 170MM OF RAIN IN MEADOWS AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(3) Granite Belt, QLD: Springs on Low side of a property Granite Downs QLD 1st April approx 2007.

RESULT: 20 TO 35MM IN REGION IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(4) Toowoomba Area, QLD: Spring in dam started flowing and filling up Dam approx say 11th April 2007.

RESULT: 10 TO 15MM IN REGION IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(5) Springs up and running well Coleraine, SW Western Coast/Plains, Victoria. Sometime before 16th April 2007.

RESULT: 20 TO 40MM IN GENERAL AREA TO 30TH APRIL 2007 AND MORE SIG RAINS FORECAST FOLLOWING WEEK

(6) Running Springs SE of West Coast, VIC, for past 3 to 4 weeks before 19th April 2007 ie. 22nd to 29th March 2007.

RESULT: 15 TO 30MM IN GENERAL REGION TO 30TH APRIL 2007 AND MORE SIG RAINS FORECAST FOLLOWING WEEK

(7) Springs running for 2 to 3 weeks Corryong, VIC, before 20th April 2007 ie. 30th March to 6th April 2007.

RESULT: 77MM AT CORRYONG IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(8) Springs up and running 2 weeks prior to 21st April 2007, near Elgin, Beachport, SE Coast, SA. ie. 7th April 2007.

RESULT: 15 TO 25MM IN AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007 AND MORE SIG RAINS FORECAST FOLLOWING WEEK

(9) Springs up and running at Bredbo, near Canberra, ACT on 20th April 2007.

RESULT: 20 TO 40MM IN AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007

(10) Springs up and running near Lake Bolac, Western Plains, VIC in past few days before the 22nd April 2007

RESULT: 15 TO 30MM IN AREA IN WEEK TO 30TH APRIL 2007 AND MORE SIG RAINS FORECAST FOLLOWING WEEK

There is a good list from very widespread localities.......And now the results pretty well speak for themselves...ie. The springs have made a very accurate rainfall Autumn Break prediction in virtually all areas!

A big thank you to all who have contributed to this list ...Any more additions to the list, please email to holton7@senet.com.au..

I plan to do this list every Autumn in future, to keep a permanent record of these events, for anyone who may be interested in this apparently mysterious and very interesting Spring & Rainfall Water Connection.

ITEM 5: WHAT DOES A COMBINATION OF THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND THE EL NINO / LA NINA DO FOR AUSTRALIA'S GROWING SEASON RAINFALL? (Issued 12th March 2007)

The Indian Ocean Dipole is a similar weather feature to the well known ENSO El Nino/ La Nina Southern Oscillation system found in the Pacific Ocean.

When we have an El Nino, it is normally generally dryer in Australia, and conversely if we have a La Nina, it is normally generally wetter in Australia.

With the Indian Ocean Dipole if it is a Positive Phase ( the same phase temperature relationship to a La-Nina in the Pacific Ocean) the it is normally generally dryer in Australia, and conversely if the Indian Ocean Dipole is in a Negative Phase (the same phase temperature relationship to an El Nino in the Pacific Ocean) it is normally generally wetter in Australia.

Therefore, if we have both the dry phases or both the wet phases of both ocean systems in operation in Australia then we should have a very dry or very wet year respectively. And, if combined together we should get a good measure of the seasonal rain expectations for each year in Australia.

If we combine the two Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean systems each year, and use a rating score from 1982 to 2006 the results (out of max 40 and minus 40) are thus:

1982 = Minus 30: One of worst scores for Dipole & Nino. A general bad drought results

1983 = Minus 3: OK for most. Very wet year Eastern Half of Australia

1984 = Minus 10: OK year for most

1985 = Plus 10: OK year for most

1986 = Minus 13: Wet Year for most!

1987 = Minus 30: One of worst scores for Dipole & Nino, but not too bad year at all in many areas

1988 = Plus 20: Wet, except drought west of SA!

1989 = Plus 10: Wet Year for most

1990 = Minus 3: OK year. Wet Eastern Half of Australia

1991 = Minus 17: Dry in NE NSW and QLD only. Remainder generally OK.

1992 = Minus 3: Floods in SA/VIC and S NSW! Very Wet Spring. Some Flooding Murray River.

1993 = Minus 11: Not too bad a year. Dryish late Spring.

1994 = Minus 25: Drought for most. SA and South VIC not too bad

1995 = Minus 12: Wet Year for most!

1996 = Plus 13: Wet Year for most

1997 = Minus 40: Worst for Dipole and El Nino, but not the worst year. Dry to drought some areas only

1998 = Plus 28: One of best for both scores, Flood NSW, OK SA, but dryish in VIC

1999 = Plus 17: Drought in S VIC & SE SA. OK to good year remainder

2000 = Plus 6: Not too bad a year. Dry in some southern areas.

2001 = Plus 7: Good Spring rains secure season for most areas

2002 = Minus 22: Bad Drought in most areas. OK on Southern coastal fringe

2003 = Plus 3: Not too bad a year, but dry persists in some inland VIC and NSW areas

2004 = Minus 4: Dry finish ruined many crops in Australia

2005 = Plus 7: Not too bad a year in many areas of Australia

2006 = Minus 32: Very Bad drought in Southern & Eastern Half of Australia

As you can see from the above this combination is a guide to the coming season, but also has a fair number of slip-ups or wrong forecasts.

This is because other ocean areas in the Southern Hemisphere are also important to Australia' s Growing Season Rainfall as well!

Dipole and El-Nino were both not good last year and last year was a very bad drought in the Southern and Eastern Half of Australia. However, the problem is that one needs to forecast the Dipole and El Nino/ La Nina ahead of time, or before the beginning of the Growing Season.

That is why I have developed computer models which forecast all significant ocean area sea surface temperatures well ahead of the Growing Seasons. Last year they forecast the Pacific Ocean ENSO Nino, the adverse Indian Ocean Dipole and the bad drought in February 2006.......And, by mid to late 2006, these same computer models were alread