ÿþ<html> <head> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage Express 2.0"> <title>ARTICLES: Holton Weather News Items</title> <style type="text/css"> .style1 { font-size: xx-small; font-weight: bold; } .style2 { font-size: xx-small; } .style3 { font-size: x-small; } .style4 { text-align: center; font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; margin-bottom: .0001pt; } .style5 { font-size: x-small; font-weight: bold; } .style6 { text-align: left; } #fullSizedImage,#borderedImage{cursor:-moz-zoom-in;} .style8 { font-size: medium; } #fullSizedImage2 { float: left; } .style9 { font-size: large; } .style14 { font-size: small; color: #0033CC; } .style15 { color: #0066FF; font-family: Calibri; } .style17 { color: #003399; font-weight: bold; } .style22 { font-weight: bold; } .style23 { font-size: x-small; color: #003399; } .style24 { font-size: x-small; font-weight: bold; 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} .style101 { color: #003399; font-size: medium; text-decoration: underline; } .style106 { text-decoration: none; } .style107 { color: #660033; font-style: italic; } .style108 { font-size: x-small; color: #003399; font-family: Calibri; text-decoration: underline; } .style109 { font-size: x-small; text-decoration: underline; } .style111 { font-size: x-large; } .style116 { height: 110px; color: #003399; } .style115 { height: 110px; } .style114 { font-size: medium; color: #003399; } .style113 { width: 130px; height: 110px; } #fullSizedImage37 { margin-right: 71px; } </style> </head> <body bgcolor="#FFFFFF"> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0"><font color="#000080" face="Arial"><img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/logosmall.jpg" width="447" height="58"></font><font color="#FFFFFF" face="Arial">..</font></p> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0" class="style111"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0" class="style111"> <font color="#0000A0" face="Microsoft Sans Serif">LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR AUSTRALIA </font></p> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0"> <font color="#0000A0" size="5" face="Microsoft Sans Serif">Short &amp; Long Range Weather Forecasts for Australia, covering Victoria, South Australia, New South Wales, Western Australia &amp; Queensland: Holton Weather - Improving Australian Farmer&#39;s Productivity since 1997</font></p> <div align="center"><center> <table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="10" style="width: 669px"> <tr> <td width="130" class="style116"> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0" class="style27"> <font size="4" face="Arial"><strong>COMPANY</strong></font></p> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0"><a href="http://www.holtonweather.com/about.htm"><font face="Arial"> <img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/buttonmed.jpg" border="0" width="109" height="32" class="style27"></font></a></p> </td> <td width="130" class="style115"> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; 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width: 121px"></strong></font></a></p> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0" class="style27">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td width="130" class="style115"> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0" class="style27"> <font size="4" face="Arial"><strong>ARTICLES</strong></font></p> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0"><a href="http://www.holtonweather.com/articles.htm"><font size="2" face="Arial"> <img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/buttonmed.jpg" border="0" width="109" height="32" class="style27"></font></a></p> </td> <td class="style113"> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0" class="style27"> <font size="4" face="Arial"><strong>LINKS</strong></font></p> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0"><a href="http://www.holtonweather.com/links.htm"><font face="Arial"> <img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/buttonmed.jpg" border="0" width="109" height="32" class="style27"></font></a></p> </td> </tr> </table> </center></div> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-left: 0; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0">&nbsp;</p> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0"> <font color="#0000A0" size="4" face="Microsoft Sans Serif">Ian Holton understands the weather information that you need to run your Australian Crop, Sheep, Cattle, Horticultural, Vine, Irrigation or Agricultural Business. Personal Phone or Email Weather Briefings are encouraged.</font></p> <p align="center" style="line-height: 150%; margin-top: 0; margin-bottom: 0"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="style111"> <font color="#004080" face="Microsoft Sans Serif"><strong><u>HOLTON WEATHER &amp; CLIMATE ARTICLES </u></strong></font></p> <p><!-- Start of StatCounter Code --> <script type="text/javascript"> var sc_project=383185; var sc_invisible=0; var sc_partition=1; var sc_security=""; </script> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://www.statcounter.com/counter/counter_xhtml.js"></script> <a href="http://www.holtonweather.com/articles.htm"> <font color="#000080" size="2" face="Americana"><strong><img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/buttonsmall.jpg" align="left" border="0" hspace="0" width="67" height="20"></strong></font></a><font color="#000080" size="2" face="Americana"><strong>Back </strong></font></p> <p align="left"><font color="#000080" size="2" face="Americana"><strong>................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................</strong></font></p> <p><font color="#000080" size="5"><b><img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" align="middle" width="16" height="15"></b></font><font face="Microsoft Sans Serif"><strong><span class="style101">HOLTON WEATHER NEWS &amp; CLIMATE ARTICLES: INDEX</span><span class="style26">:&nbsp; ARTICLES ARE LISTED FROM TOP TO BOTTOM OF THIS WEB-PAGE:</span><span class="style23"> </span> </strong></font>&nbsp;</p> <p><font face="Microsoft Sans Serif"><strong><span class="style101">Holton Weather March 2010 Three Part Series on Australia&#39;s Past &amp; Future General Weather Trends:</span></strong></font></p> <ul> <li> <p class="style6"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><u> <font size="5"> <img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" align="middle" width="16" height="15" class="style58"></font></u><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style53">NEW</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style82">: </span> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style53">WHAT IS CONTROLLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE AUSTRALIAN ALPS?: HOW HAVE SNOW LEVELS CHANGED FROM 1927 TO 2009?...AND, WHAT ARE THE EXPECTED&nbsp; AUSTRALIAN ALPS SNOW LEVEL GENERAL TREND FORECASTS FROM 2010 TO 2030?</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style29"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes" class="style27"> &nbsp;</span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span class="style53" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd : Friday 26th March 2010</span></b></p> </li> <li> <p class="style6"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span class="style2" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> &nbsp;<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font size="5"><img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" align="middle" width="16" height="15" class="style58"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style53">NEW: WHAT IS CONTROLLING GLOBAL, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, AUSTRALIAN &amp; AUSTRALIAN SOUTHERN OCEAN TEMPERATURES?: WHAT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED FROM 1900 TO 2009?...AND, WHAT ARE THE GLOBAL &amp; AUSTRALIAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE FUTURE PERIOD 2010 TO 2030?<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> &nbsp;</span></span></b><span class="style53" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd : Friday 19th March 2010</span></font></b></span></b></p> <p class="style6"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><b> <font color="#000080" size="5"><img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" align="middle" width="16" height="15"></font><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span class="style14" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style17" style="font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style54" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: accent1; mso-themeshade: 191">NEW</span></span></span></b><span style="font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style53" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">: </span></span></b><span class="style30" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <span class="style54" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> WHAT IS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE MURRAY DARLING BASIN SYSTEM RAINFALL </span><span class="style81" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> (</span></span><span class="style53" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">SOUTH QLD-NEW SOUTH WALES-VICTORIA &amp; SOUTH AUSTRALIA AREAS</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span class="style53" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">)?....... AND WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR THE RAINFALL OF THE VAST MURRAY DARLING BASIN SYSTEM?</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span class="style53" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span class="style53" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd : Friday 5th March 2010 </span> <span class="style40" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;</span></span></b><span class="style40">&nbsp;</span><span class="style100">.............................................................................................................................................................................................</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <a href="http://www.holtonweather.com/article2.htm" class="style106"> <font color="#0E5BDC"> <img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" align="middle" border="0" width="14" height="14" class="style24"></font><font size="3" face="Calibri" class="style17"><span class="style3">UNRAVELLING THE LEGEND OF AUSTRALIAN LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECASTER INIGO JONES: THE &quot;UNDER THE OLD LINO FORECAST&quot; OF A DRY-DROUGHT PERIOD NEAR THE TURN OF LAST CENTURY...FACT OR FICTION? Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd, 20th July 2009</span></font></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> </li> </ul> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><u> <font size="5"> <img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" align="middle" width="16" height="15" class="style87"></font><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style84"> </span> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style83">WHAT IS CONTROLLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE AUSTRALIAN ALPS?: HOW HAVE SNOW LEVELS CHANGED FROM 1927 TO 2009?...AND, WHAT ARE THE EXPECTED&nbsp; AUSTRALIAN ALPS SNOW LEVEL GENERAL TREND FORECASTS FROM </span></u></b></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><u> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style83">2010 TO 2030?</span></u><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style29"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes" class="style86"> </span></span></b></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style29"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes" class="style86"> &nbsp;</span></span></b></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span class="style85" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd : Friday 26th March 2010</span></b></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <o:p><span class="style90" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style91"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style98"> THIS THE THIRD IN A THREE PART SERIES OF ARTICLES EXPLORING &amp; INVESTIGATING AUSTRALIA&#39;S RAINFALL, DAM, TEMPERATURE, SNOW &amp; RIVER FLOW FUTURE GENERAL TRENDS</span></span></span></o:p></b></o:p><o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><o:p><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style93">&nbsp; ***NB***</span></span></span><span class="style96"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style97">In these 3 articles all rainfall, dam inflow , temperature and snow predictions are for GENERAL LONGER YEARLY PERIOD TRENDS ONLY...It is highly recommended, that for more specific Yearly, Seasonally, Monthly, Weekly &amp; Daily Weather Forecasts, you join Holton Weather Forecasting Services</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style54"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style98"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">[ <i>Please Click on the Services Cloud Button in the Web Page Heading</i>] </span></span></span></span></span></span></o:p> </b></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <span class="style107">[</span><o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><o:p><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style54"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style98"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style97"><span class="style99">It should also be pointed out that shorter Holton Weather Yearly, Seasonally, Monthly, Weekly and Daily Weather Forecasts issued to clients, are formulated using Holton Weather Computer Models based on Ocean Temperatures, Upper Level Wind Flow, Satellite Observations, Pacific Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole, NW Cloudbands, Southern Ocean Frontal Systems, Upper Jet Streams, MJO Tropical Waves, ER Tropical Waves, Long Weather Experience, Local Weather Knowledge, etc...While the Longer Period Solar-Magnetic and Lunar Cycle Inputs used in these general trend forecasts are used for background information only.]</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></o:p></b></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no; text-align: left;" class="style9">INTRODUCTION</span></u><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">:</span></b></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Maximum Snow Depth Levels in the Australian Alps have been noticed tending towards lower and lower levels over the past 10 to 20 years. Many snow enthusiasts and others have become concerned that Global Warming will continue this downwards trend, and we will eventually lose our Australian Winter-Spring Snow Season almost altogether! This would have a devestating effect on our Snow Tourist Industry in Australia, not to mention the lack of snowmelt going into our rivers , lakes, dams and hydro-electricity power stations.&nbsp; </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Snow Depth records in Australia are generally quoted as running from 1954 onwards. Using the well known &amp; well presented Snow Depth Data from the Snowy Hydro Limited [</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">On their website at <a href="http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowDepth.asp?pageID=46&amp;parentID=6"> http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/snowDepth.asp?pageID=46&amp;parentID=6</a></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> ]. And, it is graphs plotted using this Snow Depth data that appear quite convincing in showing a steady downward trend in Mean Yearly Snow Depths since 1954(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75">See Graph 1 below</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">). </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp; </span></b></o:p> </o:p> <o:p> <o:p><span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage25" alt="001-3.jpg spences creek record max snow picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/HOLTON%20LONG%20RANGE%20RAINDAM%20INFLOW%20FORECAST%20REVIEW/001-3.jpg?t=1269507792" /></span></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Nicholls <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2005/nicholls1.pdf"> http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2005/nicholls1.pdf</a>&nbsp; used this data(&amp; other extra data) to arrive at the following conclusion in his comprehensive 2005 paper, <i>&quot; The fact that the decline in maximum snow depth is much weaker than would be expected if this decline is being controlled by temperature, suggests that maximum snow depth is strongly affect by the occasional large  dumps of snow. On the other hand, the larger decline in spring snow depth which is clearly related to the strong warming, suggests that the main factor leading to this decline is the melting of the snow once it has fallen, rather than the amount of snow falling during the season. The warming observed at Cabramurra in winter and early spring reflects the regional and continental-scale warming (of).......the past 50 years or so (Nicholls 2003, 2004), and is most likely, at least partly due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. The results of this study, in turn, suggest that the impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect are already being observed in the Australian alpine region. It seems likely, therefore, that as predicted by various authors (e.g. Hennessy et al. 2003), the duration of snow cover will decrease as the warming effect of the enhanced greenhouse effect&quot;. </i></span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </span></b></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">There is, however, extra lesser known Snow Depth Data available for two other sites in the Australian Alps going back to 1927. These, I have attempted to adjust and add onto the Spencers Creek Snow Depth Data Set....This new longer set tends to show that warming and snow depth levels are not dimminishing as fast as indicated by Nicholls in his paper. And the two Holton Weather Articles previous to this one, in the March 2010 set, show fairly clearly that CO2 level are not of as much concern as stated, and that cooling and higher snow levels are likely in the next 20 to 30 years ahead at least. </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </span></b></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no; text-align: left;" class="style9"> METHODOLOGY<o:p><o:p><o:p><o:p><o:p><o:p><o:p><o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> OF FORMULATING A NEW EXTENDED AUSTRALIAN ALPS MAXIMUM SNOW DEPTH SERIES<span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">: </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </span></u><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">:</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Now, the first data that I have added onto the Spencers Creek Maximum Snow Depth data series, is an excellent Maximum Snow Depth series that is found at&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href="http://wikiski.com/wiki/index.php/Snow_depth_records"> http://wikiski.com/wiki/index.php/Snow_depth_records</a> . Here are found a series of photocopied yearly Snow Depth records completed at Falls Creek by <i> &quot;Average Snow depth based on 102 snow poles 100ft apart on the Rocky Valley Gauging line from Walace&#39;s Hut to Rockey Valley Camp</i>&quot;. The data found here is in inches, but can easily be converted to cms of snow depth. The data runs from 1935 to 1946. </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </span></b></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">There is also similarly measured (less snow poles-same site position) Falls Creek Snow Depth Series from 1954 to 1984. It is from this later series, when compared to the Spencers Creek maximum Snow Depth Data, that a conversion factor of Falls Creek Maximum Snow Depth multiplied by two, can be used to gain an approximate Spencers Creek Yearly Maximum Snow Depth Proxy from 1935 to 1946 inclusive. This 1935 to 1946 Proxy Series was then added to the 1954 to 2009 Spencers Creek Data Series.</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></span></b></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p>We are still left with a data gap between 1947 to 1953 to fill in somehow! However, there are some written descriptive records that are on the same web-site mentioned above, and also found in <i>&quot;Snow on St. Bernard: Wangartta Ski Club 1930 - 1980</i>. W.S.C., `980. p. 170&quot;, from Mt Hotham which runs yearly from 1927 to 1979. Now one may have some disdain at using such seeminly &quot;primitive&quot; written descriptive records to add to the series. However, again, by using the overlap years where this written decriptive record occurs concurrent with Falls Creek measured Snow Depth data &amp; Spencers Creek measured Snow Depth data, one can get a reasonable idea as to what &quot;Very Light, Light, Good, Heavy, Very Heavy, etc&quot;, would correspond to in cms of Maximum Snow Depth at Falls Creek...And, hence the required Proxy Maximum Snow Depth Yearly Data we need to be added to the Spencers Creek maximum Snow Depth Series during the gap from 1947 to 1953. Indeed, using this latter Hotham written data, the Spencers Creek proxy Series can also be extended back from 1945 to 1927 as well. This then completed a reasonably accurate new extended &quot;Proxy Spencers Creek Maximum Snow Depth Series from 1927 to 1945&quot;, attached to the widely used &quot;Actual Spencers Creek Maximum Snow Depth Series&quot; from 1954 to 2009........Therefore we now have a much longer, more complete, and very useful Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth Series from 1927 to 2009 (</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">See Graph 2 below</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">). </span></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> <o:p><span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage26" alt="002-1.jpg aust alps snow historical comb yearly record picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/HOLTON%20LONG%20RANGE%20RAINDAM%20INFLOW%20FORECAST%20REVIEW/002-1.jpg?t=1269515507" /></span></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no; text-align: left;" class="style9"> COMMENTS ON THE NEW EXTENDED AUSTRALIAN ALPS MAXIMUM SNOW DEPTH SERIES</span></u><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">:</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The <span class="style33">first factor</span> that appears, as one looks at the new longer series, is that previously shown on the shorter series, steady fall away in Snow Depth levels from 1954 to 2009 visually does not seem quite as significant. In fact, visually, from 1927 to around 1984, there does not seem to be any real significant general Snow Depth trend at all! </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The <span class="style33">second factor</span> that appears, as one looks at this longer series, is that several (in fact, 6) years appear to be equally as low as the recent very low 2006 Maximum Snow Depth level...And three of these years occur in a row&nbsp; from 1948 to 1950!...Here, the Hotham Written Records show, <i>&quot;1948 &quot;Very Light&quot;. 1949 &quot;Extreme Light&quot; &amp; 1950 &quot;Very Light and Short&quot; </i>Snow Depths<i>. </i></span></b></o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The <span class="style33">third factor</span> that appears noteworthy is that the four Highest Maximum Snow Depth Years appear all before 1982, IE. 1927, 1939, 1964 and 1981 (</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">1946 is quoted as being in the top 4 years on the Hotham Written Record, but it is NOT shown as high in the Falls Creek measured data</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">). The graph series fairly clearly shows that from 1982 onwards we have not had any really <span class="style33">extreme</span> high Snow Depth years in the Australian Alps...But, having said that, there does appear a noteworthy three year cluster of high Snow Depth years from 1990 to 1992 in recent times...The highest number of high Snow Depth years in a row for the whole series! </span></b></o:p> </o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp; </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The &quot;1927 to 2009 Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth Yearly Series&quot; can also be converted to a <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&quot;1927 to 2009 Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth </span></span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">4</span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> Yearly Mean Series&quot; (</span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">See graph 3 below</span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">). From this new &quot;1927 to 2009 Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth </span></span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">4</span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> Yearly Mean Series&quot; we can then more clearly view the main trends of the total Maximum Snow Depth Series.</span></span></b></b></o:p></o:p><o:p><o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p><span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage29" alt="003-1.jpg aust alps snow historical comb 4 yr mean record picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/HOLTON%20LONG%20RANGE%20RAINDAM%20INFLOW%20FORECAST%20REVIEW/003-1.jpg?t=1269518959" /></span></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">And, from </span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">graph 3</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> above, using the new </span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">&nbsp;4</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> year Mean Maximum Snow Depth Trend data, we can detect (1) A rise in&nbsp; levels from 1930 to 1946, (2) A dramatic fall trough from around 1949 to around 1952, (3) A very slow fall in levels from 1954 to 1984, (4) Another significant fall trough from 1985 to 1990, (5) A dramatic rise peak from 1991 to 1994, and, (6) A final erratic fall from 1995 to 2009.</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no; text-align: left;" class="style9"> AUSTRALIAN ALPS MAXIMUM SNOW DEPTH-TEMPERATURE-HTFM MODEL LINKAGES</span></u><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">:</span></b></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p>&nbsp;<o:p><o:p><o:p><o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The most obvious link to Maximum Snow Depths each year is Mean Temperature, as Nicholls 2005 has suggested, &quot; <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><i>the larger decline in spring snow depth which is clearly related to the strong warming&quot;. </i></span></b>&nbsp;</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Therefore, we will first compare the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&quot;1927 to 2009 Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth 4 Yearly Mean Series&quot; to use the negative, or the minus &quot;1900 to 2009 Australian 4 Yearly Mean Temperature Series&quot; (<span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">*All Temperature values sourced from <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/"> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/</a> ).</span>&nbsp; Here noting, that to compare the two series, we need to invert the Mean Temperature Series to gain a comparison, as Mean Temperature will be expected to vary the exact opposite to Mean Maximum Snow Depth. </span></b></b></span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">And, from this comparison of the two series, it can be clearly seen that, in general, Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth (Light Blue Line)does indeed correlate quite well with the Inverted (<i>Minus</i>) Australian Mean Temperatures from 1930 to 2009(Dark Blue Line)(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">See Graph 4 below</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">). </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">There are 2 notable exceptions(1)&nbsp; In the 1949 to 1952 sharp fall trough, and, (2) In the 1991 to 1994 sharp rise peak. In these two short time periods, the Snow Depths are quite a bit lower and quite a bit higher respectively, than that anticipated from temperature variations alone...However, we must not lose sight of the fact that Snow Depths will also respond to other meteorological variables, as well as to temperature...And some isolated sifnificant variations in the two traces would be expected to occur because of these other meteorological factors(eg. wind direction, low or high pressure dominance, etc, etc).</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp;</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p><o:p><o:p><span class="outline"><img id="fullSizedImage27" alt="004-1.jpg aust alps snow vs aust temp picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/HOLTON%20LONG%20RANGE%20RAINDAM%20INFLOW%20FORECAST%20REVIEW/004-1.jpg?t=1269518790" /></span></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Now, if we then compare (</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">See Graph 5 below</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">) the <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&quot;1927 to 2009 Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth 4 Yearly Mean Series&quot;(Blue Line) to the <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style29">&quot;1900 to 2030 Holton Temperature Forecasting Model(HTFM) Series&quot;(Purple Line)(</span></span></b></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style109">HTFM details are Found in the following Holton Weather Article,</span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style29"><span class="style33">&nbsp; </span> <span class="style2" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <font size="5"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style40"><span class="style33">NEW: WHAT IS CONTROLLING GLOBAL, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, AUSTRALIAN &amp; AUSTRALIAN SOUTHERN OCEAN TEMPERATURES?: WHAT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED FROM 1900 TO 2009?...AND, WHAT ARE THE GLOBAL &amp; AUSTRALIAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE FUTURE PERIOD 2010 TO 2030?</span><span style="mso-spacerun:yes" class="style33"> &nbsp;</span></span></b><span class="style108" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd : Friday 19th March 2010</span></font></span>), we also gain a reasonably good correlation, similar to that found in the just compared Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth to Australian Mean Temperatures in </span></span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">Graph 4</span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style29"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">. </span></span> </span></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Here noting once again, that to compare the two series we need to invert the HTFM Series to gain a comparison, as HTFM will be expected to vary the exact opposite to Mean Maximum Snow Depth.</span></span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage34" alt="004-3.jpg snow depth vs HTFM no 2 picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/HOLTON%20LONG%20RANGE%20RAINDAM%20INFLOW%20FORECAST%20REVIEW/004-3.jpg?t=1269649316" /></span></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Now on </span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">Graph 5</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> Above, the HFTM Model forecasts a Maximum Snow Depth Trend Rise from current well negative Maximum Snow Depth Levels, back to Positive Maximum Snow Depth Levels, commencing in the near future 2010 to 2012 period.......With the HFTM Model suggesting, by the comparison of its&#39; Actual past Levels(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">1946 to 1972 Approximate Period: Black horizontal Mean Line</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">)&amp; Forecast levels(/span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">2010 to 2030 Approximate Period: Black hoizontal Mean Line</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">)), that Snow Depth levels will return soon to similar MEAN values to that of&nbsp; the 1945 to 1972 period </span></span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage35" alt="005-2.jpg snow depth no 2 picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/HOLTON%20LONG%20RANGE%20RAINDAM%20INFLOW%20FORECAST%20REVIEW/005-2.jpg?t=1269649409" /></span></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Following on from the last paragraph and moving back to </span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">Graph 2</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">Re-done Above as Graph 6</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">), we can see that the approximate Mean Maximum Australian Alps Snow Depth has dropped from around a Mean value of 240cms at Spencers Creek in the 1950 to 1974 Period, to an new lower approximate Mean Maximum Snow Depth of around 170cms in the current 1982 to 2009<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> Period</span></b>(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">If we ignore the odd higher 1991-1993 short spell</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">). </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Therefore, using the forecast HFTM values, on the previously shown </span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">Graph 5</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">, we would anticipate Spencers Creek Maximum Mean Snow Depth Trend values increasing shortly to back to somewhere close to the 1950 to 1974 Mean value of around 240cms.</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no; text-align: left;" class="style9"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> SUMMARY &amp; CONCLUSIONS</u><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">:</span></b></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Maximum Snow Depth levels have been decreasing at Spencers Creek in the Australian Alps steadily from 1954 onwards. However, new Proxy Maximum Snow Depth Data compiled by Holton Weather from 1927 to 1953, suggests that Maximum Snow Depth Levels have been as low as the current levels back in the 1927 to 1953 period.</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The new more complete Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth Series, comprises ,<o:p><o:p><o:p><o:p> (a) The often quoted well complied Snowy Hydro</o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p> series going back to 1954, (b)The&nbsp; Falls Creek well measured series from 1935 to 1946 (</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Adjusted to Spencers Creek levels</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">), and, (c) The Mt Hotham written decriptive record series from 1927 to 1934, &amp; from 1947 to 1953 (<span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Interpreted &amp; adjusted to Spencers Creek levels</span>). This new longer period Snow Depth Series, does, in the author&#39;s opinion, give a much better overall balanced view of the history of Australian Alps Maximum Snow Levels. </span></b></o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Mean Yearly maximum Snow Depth Levels would be expected to follow Mean Temperature Levels fairly closely...And this new Yearly Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth Series has been found to have a high correlation with the Yearly General Australian Mean Temperature Series. Now, although Mean temperature is obviously not the only influence on Yearly Snow Depth Records( </span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">As shown by the 2 significant diversions of Snow Depth &amp; Temperature records on graph 4, in the 1949 to 1952 sharp fall trough, and in the 1991 to 1994 sharp rise peak, where the Snow Depths are quite a bit lower and quite a bit higher than expected from Temperature influence alone<span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">), Mean temperature is by far the most dominant climatic influence.</span></span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3"> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp;</span></b></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">By making use of this Mean Temperature to Maximum Snow Depth high correlation, the Holton Forecast Temperature Model (HFTM) was then used to calculate an Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth <span class="style33">General Trend</span> Forecast from 2010 to 2030. This HFTM Model Australian Alps Maximum Snow Depth General Trend Forecast predicts that levels will change from current Mean Trend of 170cms, back to a value nearer the Mean Trend of 1950 to 1974, which was 240cms (<i>Values are all relative to Spencers Creek Hydro Data</i>). </span></b> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">It should be stressed that this does <span class="style33">NOT</span>, of course, infer that every year from 2010 to 2030 is forecast to be at that 240cms Trend Level.......Only that Yearly Maximum Snow Depth Levels will be expected to increase to vary up and down around that new 240cms Mean Maximum Snow Depth Trend Forecast.</span></b></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">This third study, in conjunction with the two other studies in this March 2010 series, show that Australian Alps Snow Fields are likely to continue to exist in a &quot;fairly robust healthy state&quot; in the future from period from 2010 to 2030...And likely for many more years after that!</span></b></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p align="center" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2"> <span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-them1: The SOUTHERN WET SEASON MBD Rainfall over the past 110yrs is NOT correlated with CO2 at all.&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;:: SWSMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:: AMBDR is Plotted against Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Cycles&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proo: WMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-: SPMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><u> <span class="style3" style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Important Notes</span></u><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style3">: While care is taken in producing these forecasts &amp; reports,, no responsibility is taken for the accuracy of these forecasts, or</span><span class="style3" style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span><span class="style3"> for the use of them by the customer, or for any loss that may occur by the use of any weather</span><span class="style3" style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span> <span class="style3">forecasting information contained in</span><span class="style3" style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span><span class="style3"> these forecasts. </span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><u> <span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof: yes">This article &amp; </span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof: yes">t</span><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:yes"><u>hese forecasts are Copyright and may not be reproduced in total, or in part, or in any form, or reproduced<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>in total or in part<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>in any Agricultural Consultants Newsletter , and may not be supplied to other persons without the author s consent<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;</span></u></span></b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b></span></span></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> &nbsp;</p> <p align="center" class="MsoNormal"> <!--[if gte vml 1]> <v:shapetype id="_x0000_t77" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> </v:formulas> <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"/> </v:shapetype> <v:shape id="_x0000_i1040" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="" style='width:12pt; height:11.25pt'> <v:imagedata src="../../../../../IANHOL~1/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image001.jpg" o:href="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><u> <span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp;<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font color="#000080" size="5"><b><img src="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" align="middle" width="16" height="15"></b></font></b></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">NEW: WHAT IS CONTROLLING GLOBAL, SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, AUSTRALIAN &amp; AUSTRALIAN SOUTHERN OCEAN TEMPERATURES?: WHAT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HAVE OCURRED FROM 1900 TO 2009?...AND, WHAT ARE THE GLOBAL &amp; AUSTRALIAN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE FUTURE PERIOD 2010 TO 2030?</span></u><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> &nbsp;</span></span></b></p> <p align="center" class="MsoNormal"> <span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd : Monday 22nd March 2010 /span> <span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;</span></span><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">&nbsp;</span></b><o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <o:p><span class="style90" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style91"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style98"> THIS THE SECOND IN A THREE PART SERIES OF ARTICLES EXPLORING &amp; INVESTIGATING AUSTRALIA&#39;S RAINFALL, DAM, TEMPERATURE, SNOW &amp; RIVER FLOW FUTURE GENERAL TRENDS</span></span></span></o:p></b></o:p><o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><o:p><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style93">&nbsp; ***NB***</span></span></span><span class="style96"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style97">In these 3 articles all rainfall, dam inflow , temperature and snow predictions are for GENERAL LONGER YEARLY PERIOD TRENDS ONLY...It is highly recommended, that for more specific Yearly, Seasonally, Monthly, Weekly &amp; Daily Weather Forecasts, you join Holton Weather Forecasting Services</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style54"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style98"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">[ <i>Please Click on the Services Cloud Button in the Web Page Heading</i>] </span></span></span></span></span></span></o:p> </b></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <span class="style107">[</span><o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><o:p><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style54"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style98"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style97"><span class="style99">It should also be pointed out that shorter Holton Weather Yearly, Seasonally, Monthly, Weekly and Daily Weather Forecasts issued to clients, are formulated using Holton Weather Computer Models based on Ocean Temperatures, Upper Level Wind Flow, Satellite Observations, Pacific Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole, NW Cloudbands, Southern Ocean Frontal Systems, Upper Jet Streams, MJO Tropical Waves, ER Tropical Waves, Long Weather Experience, Local Weather Knowledge, etc...While the Longer Period Solar-Magnetic and Lunar Cycle Inputs used in these general trend forecasts are used for background information only.]</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></o:p></b></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">BRIEF INTRODUCTION</span></u><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">: </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">A few weeks previous to starting this research study(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style46">IE. Friday 5th March 2010</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">), I had a detailed look at past &amp; future forecast rainfall trends in the Murray Darling Basin area of Australia........And, as it has been several years since my last web article on Global &amp; Australian Temperature Trends, I have decided to do an up-to-date research paper &amp; model forecast of Global &amp; Australian Temperature Forecast Trends...As a&nbsp; companion article to the Rainfall Forecast article just mentioned above (</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style46">Which follows this one...On this web page</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">).</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style76">METHODOLOGY:</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">I have compiled an updated Temperature Forecasting Model, Holton Temperature Forecasting Model (HTFM), by using the 4 most likely Temperature Influencing Climatic Variables: IE. <span class="style33">SET A:&nbsp; FOUR TEMPERATURE INFLUENCING CLIMATE VARIABLES</span> (1) Carbon Dioxide PPM Variations, (2) Solar-Magnetic Variations(Using AA Magnetic changes), (3) El Nino- La Nina Ocean Variations (Using the Southern Oscillation Index-SOI), &amp;, (4) Great Ocean Coveyor Belt Variations (Using the Atlantic Multi-Decadel Index-AMO). </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">These Climatic Variables were graphed alongside four, &quot;4 Yearly Mean Temperature Series&quot; from 1900 to 2007: IE. <span class="style33">&nbsp;SET B: FOUR MEAN TEMPERATURE SERIES</span> (1) *Global Land &amp; Ocean Temperatures Combined, (2) *Southern Hemisphere Land &amp; Ocean Temperatures Combined, (3) *Australian Land Temperatures, &amp;, (4) *Australian Area Adjacent Southern Ocean Sea Temperatures.&nbsp;&nbsp;(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">*All Temperature values sourced from <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/"> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/</a> )</b></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">All 4 Temperature <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Influencing Climatic Variables(SET A ) </span></b>were then tested for correlation accuracy, against 4 &quot;Four Yearly Mean Temperature Series&quot; (SET B) for the time period from 1900 to 2007.&nbsp; The <span class="style33">SET A</span>: Four Temperature Influencing Climatic Variables were then placed in an equation which gave the closest line graph correlation to the <span class="style33">SET B</span>: &quot;Four Yearly Mean Temperature Series&quot;.</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The best correlating amounts of each of the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">SET A: Temperature Influencing Climatic Variables: IE. (1) Carbon Dioxide PPM Variations, (2) Solar-Magnetic Variations(Using AA Magnetic changes), (3) El Nino- La Nina Ocean Variations (Using the Southern Oscillation Index-SOI), &amp;, (4) Great Ocean Coveyor Belt Variations (Using the Atlantic Multi-Decadel Index-AMO), that were used to calculate the </span></b>final Holton Temperature Forecasting Model (HTFM), were:</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span class="style33"></span><span class="style33"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">(1)</span></span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp;4.5 times the <span class="style33">**AA Solar-Magnetic Index,</span> using a lagged Zero to 10 Year(11 Years Total) Running Yearly Mean. (</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Source- <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <a href="http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/GEOMAG/image/aassn07.jpg"> http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/GEOMAG/image/aassn07.jpg</a> )</b></span></b>&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Here, Solar-Magnetic Warming &amp; Cooling effects have been found by myself and other researchers over the years, to show an up to 16year lag as the Solar-Magnetic effects to filter through the complex Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Climate System. An 11 year period was selected in this study as the lag period for this Holton Model, as this is the average Solar-Magnetic Cycle Length, as found &amp; recognised generally by all from past history of the Sun&#39;s output.</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span class="style33"></span><span class="style33"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">(2)</span></span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp; <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">4 times the <span class="style33">Negative SOI Index</span> using a 0-4 Year(5 Years total) Running Yearly Mean. (</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Source- <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml"> http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml</a> )</b></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Here, the SOI Index is used in a negative capacity. As the well known El Nino(Negative SOI)causes warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and the equally well known La Nina(Positive SOI) causes cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Also, the El Nino-La Nina has been shown to effect sea surface temperatures for several years after it ceases in the tropical Pacific Ocean Area...This is because the El Nino-La Nina effects are then spread to adjacent Sub-Tropical Areas with time(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Source: EG. <a href="http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/07/regression-analyses-do-not-capture.html"> http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/07/regression-analyses-do-not-capture.html</a></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> ). A 5 year period was selected as the lag period to be used for the SOI in this Holton Model, as it&nbsp; fitted the approximate up to 5 year lag period expected by Tisdale &amp; others.</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span class="style33"></span><span class="style33"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">(3)</span></span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">0.35 times the <span class="style33">CO2 PPM Variation</span> from the 1900 level using the Yearly Mean. (</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Source- <a href="http://www.aip.org/history/climate/images/mlo_record_2007.jpg"> http://www.aip.org/history/climate/images/mlo_record_2007.jpg</a> +<a href="http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/lawdome.smoothed.yr20">http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/lawdome.smoothed.yr20</a></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> )</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Here, the&nbsp; CO2 yearly increase over the past 100 years or so, has been used by many scientists and many politicians &amp; others to explain the small, but significant, Global, Australian and Regional&nbsp; Temperature rise over the past 100 years. The scientific expected effects from the CO2 increase are quite small, but are scientifically proven effects. However, the main &quot;bone of contention&quot; and &quot;current raging world debate&quot;, is over whether this CO2 temperature increase is magnified by many positive feedbacks, which overwhelm any negative feedbacks. The scientific debate still rages on this last question!&nbsp; A Yearly Mean was selected here, as the CO2 increase is quite linear, and therefore it makes little sense to use any CO2 lag effect in this Holton Model.&nbsp; </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp;<span class="style33">(4)</span> 0.2 times the AMO North Atlantic Ocean Index</span> using the Yearly Mean. (</b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Source- <a href="http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/04/atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation.html"> http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/04/atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation.html</a> )</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Here, the AMO Index measurement is at the commencement of the well known Great Ocean Conveyor Belt system, and it&#39;s Multi-Decadel Cycles have large effects on the North American, European, </span>Northern hemisphere &amp; on even some world weather systems. A 3 Year Mean Lagged Value was selected for this climatic variable, as there is also an expected lag effect in Temperature as it translates from Ocean to Atmosphere to Land. </b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75">The numerical quotas of the four Climatic Variables used in the Holton Temperature Forecasting Model(HTFM) are shown below in easily viewed graphical form on Graph 1 below.</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> [</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style52">The top Blue Line is the AA Index value, the Pink-Red Line is the SOI Index value, the Green Line is the CO2 Variation value, and the flatter Purple Line is the AMO Index value</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">]:</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage19" alt="005.jpg AA INDEX, SOI INDEX, AMO INDEX, CO2 picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/005.jpg?t=1268993441" /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style76">MODEL RESULTS GRAPH 2: GLOBAL 4 YEARLY MEAN TEMPERATURE TRENDS</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">Graph 2: Holton Temperature Forecasting Model(HTFM) 1900 to 2030(Pink Trace) compared to 4 Year Running Mean Global Temperature Changes 1900 to 2007(Blue Trace): </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage20" alt="001.jpg GLOBE TEMP picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/001.jpg?t=1268993840" /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75">MODEL RESULTS COMMENTARY &amp; FORECASTS GRAPH 2: GLOBAL YEARLY MEAN TEMPERATURE TRENDS </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33">1. </span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The HTFM Model very closely &amp; convincingly follows the main trends of the Global Mean Temperature Profile,&nbsp; IE. (a) A small temperature fall 1900 to 1906, (b) An extended temperature rise 1906 to 1940, (c) A steady or very slowly descending temperature period from 1940 to 1978, (d) Another extended fairly rapid rise in temperatures from 1978 to 1998, &amp;, (e) A&nbsp; final short steady or slightly descending temperature period from 1998 to 2007. </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33">2. </span> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75">When we break down the different component parts of the HTFM Model into their various effects for each main global temperature trend periods we get the following very interesting results (</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style78">Table 1: below</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75">) </span></b></p> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <table class="style55"> <tr> <td class="style56"> INDEX-PERIOD</td> <td class="style57"> 1900 to 1906 <br /> % Influence</td> <td class="style67"> 1907 to 1940 <br /> % Influence </td> <td class="style59"> 1941 to 1978 <br /> % Influence</td> <td class="style64"> 1979 to 1998 <br /> % Influence</td> <td class="style62"> 1999 to 2007 <br /> % Influence</td> <td class="style71"> Mean % Influence of the <br /> 5 Trend Periods: <br /> 1900 to 2007</td> <td class="style68"> TOTAL 1907 to 2007 <br /> % Influence</td> <td class="style65"> &nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="style56"> AA SOLAR-MAGNETIC INDEX</td> <td class="style57"> -69%</td> <td class="style67"> +50%</td> <td class="style59"> -33%</td> <td class="style64"> +33%</td> <td class="style62"> -37%</td> <td class="style71"> 44.44%</td> <td class="style68"> +49% =&nbsp;&nbsp; 0.47C RISE</td> <td class="style65"> &nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="style56"> SOI NINO INDEX</td> <td class="style57"> -14%</td> <td class="style67"> +43%</td> <td class="style59"> -100%</td> <td class="style64"> +44%</td> <td class="style62"> -61%</td> <td class="style71"> 52.4%</td> <td class="style68"> +18% =&nbsp;&nbsp; 0.17C RISE</td> <td class="style65"> &nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="style56"> CO2 PPM VARIATION</td> <td class="style57"> 0%</td> <td class="style67"> +4%</td> <td class="style70"> +47% <span class="style52">Incorrect Tendency</span></td> <td class="style64"> +13%</td> <td class="style69"> +9% <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span class="style52">Incorrect Tendency</span></b></td> <td class="style66"> -8%<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span class="style52">Incorrect <br /> Tendency</span></b></td> <td class="style68"> +27% =&nbsp;&nbsp; 0.26C RISE </td> <td class="style65"> &nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="style56"> AMO INDEX</td> <td class="style57"> -16%</td> <td class="style67"> +3%</td> <td class="style59"> -13%</td> <td class="style64"> +9%</td> <td class="style62"> -3%</td> <td class="style71"> 8.8%</td> <td class="style68"> +6%&nbsp;&nbsp; =&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 0.06C RISE</td> <td class="style65"> &nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="style56"> TOTAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE</td> <td class="style57"> 0.25C FALL</td> <td class="style67"> 0.6C RISE</td> <td class="style59"> 0.2C FALL</td> <td class="style64"> 0.6C RISE</td> <td class="style62"> 0.05C FALL</td> <td class="style71"> N/APP</td> <td class="style68"> 0.95C TOTAL RISE</td> <td class="style65"> &nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="style56"> &nbsp;</td> <td class="style57"> &nbsp;</td> <td class="style61"> &nbsp;</td> <td class="style59"> &nbsp;</td> <td class="style64"> &nbsp;</td> <td class="style62"> &nbsp;</td> <td class="style66"> &nbsp;</td> <td class="style63"> &nbsp;</td> <td class="style65"> &nbsp;</td> </tr> </table> </b> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The interesting break-down of the Table 1 results into the 5 Main Temperature Trend Periods, shows that; (a) The AA Solar magnetic has a consistently strong correlation in the right direction for each of the 5 main temperature trends, (b) The SOI, apart from the first 1900 to 1906 period also has a consistently strong correlation in the right direction for all trends, (c) The AMO has a consistently weak correlation in the right direction for each of the 5 main trends, <span class="style33">HOWEVER</span>, (d) The CO2 PPM variation has an <span class="style33">INCORRECT</span> correlation for 2 of the main temperature trend periods IE. An <i>opposite correlation to that expected</i>, and a weak to very weak correlation for the other 3 main temperature trend periods.</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">These results clearly show that AA Solar-Magnetic and the related Ocean *El Nino-La Nina SOI changes, and to a lesser extent the related *AMO Ocean changes <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">(</span></b></span></b></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style2">*</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style2">As Solar-magnetic changes heat the atmosphere &amp; ocean as well, and this ocean heating then translates with lag time to further atmospheric heating</span></span>)<span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">are running <span class="style33">ALL</span> short to medium range Global Mean Temperature Changes, <i>and that CO2 changes have no effect, or little effect at all</i>...<i>Apart from slightly supressing temperature falls, and slightly adding to temperature rises.</i></span></span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">If we then look at the longer term extended oscillating global temperature rise from 1907 to 2007, the break-down effects of the effects of the 4 climatic variables changes somewhat, <i>as CO2 does show better correlation over this longer term temperature change period</i>....... <span class="style33">HOWEVER, </span><i>AA Solar-Magnetic increase changes are again <span class="style33">THE MOST IMPORTANT</span> over this 101 year period, explaining 49% of the Mean Global Temperature increase</i>, the SOI Nino explains 18% of the increase, and the AMO Index 6% of the increase. <span class="style33">This makes a Total Solar-Ocean Contribution for the heating of 73%...While CO2 variations explain the other 27% of the global temperature increase from 1907 to 2007.</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Now, most of the CO2 increase in PPM has occurred after approximately 1957. And in this 50 year period the CO2 variation was responsible for approximately 0.25C of the temperature rise during this period from 1957 to 2007. </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">If we keep the CO2 increasing at the 1957 to 2007 rate from now (</span></span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">2010</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">) onwards the effect on global temperatures by the year 2100 would be around another 0.5C only. Noting that the current 1907 to 2007(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">101 year</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">) TOTAL rise is 0.95C, of which only 0.26C appears, from this investigation, as being attributable to the &quot;CO2 warming effect&quot; .</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Therefore, if in a theoretical case, we rely on the &quot;AA Solar-Magnetic, El Nino SOI &amp; AMO heating total effects&quot;, oscillating up and down with short and medium term, but somehow camcelling each other out, so they combined have a zero heating effect in the year 2107...Then the actual forecast &quot;CO2 global warming effect&quot; will be only around 0.75C TOTAL global temperature warming for the 150 year period from 1957 to 2107. </span></b></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> This figure matches fairly well with other theoretical CO2 PPM variation forecasts of the &quot;CO2 global warming effect&quot; causing&nbsp; global temperature increases of &lt;1C for the doubling of CO2 PPM, <span class="style33">EG</span>, As quoted below:</b></p> <div class="style72"> <p class="style38"> &quot;The greenhouse effect is real, as is the enhancement due to increasing carbon dioxide concentration.</p> <p class="style38"> However, the likely extent of global temperature rise from a doubling of carbon dioxide is less than 1C.</p> <p class="style38"> <em>William Kininmonth, a former head of the National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological Organisation, is author of Climate Change: A Natural Hazard (Multi-Science Publishing Co, 2004).&quot;</em></p> <!-- google_ad_section_end(name=story_body) --> </div> <!-- // .story-body --> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;<span class="style74"><a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/cold-facts-dispel-theories-on-warming/story-e6frg6zo-1225704690711"><span class="style27">http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/cold-facts-dispel-theories-on-warming/story-e6frg6zo-1225704690711</span></a></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style73">&nbsp; the first </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Remember also, that this above result from the &quot;CO2 warming effect&quot;, does not take into account any other expected cooling or warming associated with the other 3 significant Climatic variables, of AA Solar-Magnetic, Pacific Ocean El Nino-La Nina SOI &amp; Atlantic Ocean AMO changes. These may &amp; likely will increase or decrease markedly, changing any resultant temperature effects from the &quot;CO2 warming&nbsp; results&quot; quite significantly in </span>any year or time period in the future.</b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75">FORECASTING FUTURE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE HOLTON HFTM MODEL FROM 2010 TO 2030:</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">We can make a forecast of likely reasonable accuracy using the Holton HFTM Model as a basis. Because, <span class="style33">(1)</span> The AA Solar-Magnetic Index has in the past few years changed from a high output AA-Sunspot Cycle, to a low output AA-Sunspot Cycle, and is expected to remain at this low output for at least the next few solar cycles up to 2030, <span class="style33">(2)</span> The CO2 PPM levels are unlikely to change from their current upward linear trend, and, <span class="style33">(3)</span> The AMO Index is in a warm cycle and is likely to stay in that approximate cycle up to near 2030. </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> The Nino SOI Index is a little harder to predict, however I have input it into the HFTM Model on the basis of&nbsp; the normal approximate 3 to 7 year cyclic patterns of El Nino-La Nina, IE. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) describes the cycle of El Niño, neutral and La Niña patterns in the Pacific Ocean, which occur on time scales of typically 3-7 years (<span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Source: <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/about-weather-and-climate/risk/risk-enso.html"> http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/about-weather-and-climate/risk/risk-enso.html</a></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> )</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage24" alt="001.jpg GLOBE TEMP picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/001.jpg?t=1268993840" /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Looking at Graph 2 again(</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style46">Repeated above for convenience</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">), the resultant Global Temperature Forecast from the HFTM Model can be seen by the Pink Line. </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The HFTM FORECAST is expecting the AA Solar-Magnetic 15 Year Lag effect to start to kick in during the next few years. </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> Please note, that the actual pink HFTM trace results should not be taken too literally, <span class="style79">but more as a general temperature trend line,</span> For generally, the actual &quot;4 Year Mean Actual Global Temperature&quot; follows the <i>general mean of the HFTM Forecast</i>, <span class="style33">NOT</span> all of the the smaller peaks and troughs......However, having said that, later in 2010 we should see the start of the forecast downturn in global temperatures. Especially as the current strong El Nino is expected to change to a following strong La Nina by most global computer model forecasts before the end of this year 2010. </b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> Mean Global Temperatures from then on, say from 2010-2011 onwards, until at least 2030, are from the HFTM Forecast expected to stay at levels similar to those experienced in the 1945 to 1978 period, IE. about 0.4 to 0.5C less than&nbsp; the current global temperature levels of around **0.6C above the 1900 to 2000 Mean Values. This drops the Mean Global Temperatures down close to the 1900 to 2000 Mean value from around late 2010-2011 onwards to 2030 at least. (**See Source: <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3"> <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html"> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cmb-faq/anomalies.html</a></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> )</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style76">MODEL RESULTS GRAPH 3: SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 4 YEARLY MEAN TEMPERATURE TRENDS</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">Graph 3: Holton Temperature Forecasting Model(HTFM) 1900 to 2030(Pink Trace) compared to 4 Year Running Mean Southern Hemisphere Temperature Changes 1900 to 2007(Blue Trace): </span></b> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage21" alt="003.jpg SOUTHERN HEMP TEMP picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/003.jpg?t=1268993966" /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75">MODEL RESULTS COMMENTARY &amp; FORECASTS GRAPH 3: SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 4 YEARLY MEAN TEMPERATURE TRENDS&nbsp; </span></b></p> </span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> These results are very similar to those found from Graph 2, IE. The Global Mean Temperature Trend Series Results.</b></span></p> </span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <p class="MsoNormal"> <br /> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style76">MODEL RESULTS GRAPH 4: <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> AUSTRALIAN 4 YEARLY MEAN TEMPERATURE TRENDS</b></span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">Graph 4: Holton Temperature Forecasting Model(HTFM) 1900 to 2030(Pink Trace) compared to 4 Year Running Yearly Mean Australian Temperature Changes 1900 to 2007(Green Trace): </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage22" alt="002.jpg AUSTRALIAN TEMP picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/002.jpg?t=1268994036" /></span></p> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75">MODEL RESULTS COMMENTARY &amp; FORECASTS GRAPH 4: AUSTRALIAN 4 YEARLY MEAN TEMPERATURE TRENDS&nbsp; </span></b></p> </span></span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> These results are very similar to those found from Graphs 2 &amp; 3, IE. The Global &amp; Southern Hemisphere Mean Temperature Trend Series Results.</b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> The later timing of the current temperature downturn in the Australian 4 Yearly Mean Temperature Data Set, (</b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Compared to the 3 other Temperature Series...The Global, Southern Hemisphere &amp; the following Near Australian Southern Ocean Series</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">), may well be due to the current extended dry-drought period(</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Which appears set to end, according to Holton Weather General Long Range Rainfall Trend Forecasts: See- <a href="http://www.holtonweather.com/article2.htm"> http://www.holtonweather.com/article2.htm</a> IE. The following Holton Web Article to this one</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">). This current extended dry-drought period,&nbsp; would be expected to influence Australia Mean Temperatures </span></b> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> in an upwards direction via lack of grass-groundcover, less evaporative cooling, less lower and middle level cloud cover,&nbsp; &amp; less albedo connections.</b></span></p> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style76">MODEL RESULTS GRAPH 5:</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">Graph 5: Holton Temperature Forecasting Model(HTFM) 1900 to 2030(Pink Trace) compared to 4 Year Running Mean Southern Ocean Near Australian Sea Surface Temperature Changes 1900 to 2007(Red Trace): </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage23" alt="004.jpg SOUTHERN AUSTRALIAN OCEAN TEMP picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/004.jpg?t=1268994116" /></span></p> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75">MODEL RESULTS COMMENTARY &amp; FORECASTS GRAPH 5: SOUTHERN OCEAN NEAR AUSTRALIAN 4 YEARLY MEAN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TRENDS&nbsp; </span></b></p> </span></span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> These results are very similar to those found from Graphs 2 &amp; 3 &amp; 4, IE. Global &amp; Southern Hemisphere &amp; Australian Mean Temperature Trend Series Results.</b></p> </span> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="style77" style="mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style76">FINAL SUMMARY, FORECASTS &amp; CONCLUSIONS</span><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style75"> </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp;</span></b></span></b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">This research paper study was undertaken to update an understanding into what climatic factors are controlling Global, Southern Hemisphere &amp;&nbsp; Australian Temperatures, and also Near Australian Southern Ocean Surface Temperatures. </span></b> </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> This whole area of research is filled with controversy, argument &amp; counter argument, and many unproven science theories. There are &quot;convincing-type&quot; science theories put forward by many, including the obvious CO2 effects, Solar-Magnetic effects, Solar-Related Cosmic Ray effects, Ocean effects, Orbital effects, Planetary effects, Albedo effects, Positive feedback effects, Negative feedback effects, Computer Model effects, etc, etc.</span></b></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The popular and most publicised &quot;CO2 rapid catastrophic warming effect notion&quot; has to rely on unproven positive feedbacks overwhelming negative feedbacks in the Atmosphere &amp; Oceans to achieve the &quot;desired&quot; result of rapid catastrophic warming.&nbsp; CO2 by itself, will only produce a modest warming on doubling its&#39; current&nbsp; PPM quantity. This study, in fact, shows clearly that quite modest warming is the only result CO2 warming ihas delivered since in the past 100 years, IE. A modest&nbsp; Global Warming of 0.26C from 1907 to 2007...And the expectation from this year 2010 until 2107 is only another 0.69C. This figure is close to CO2 theoretical warming expectations (</span></span></span></span><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Without the addition of&nbsp; any unproven positive feedbacks</span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">).</span></span></b></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">It has also been shown clearly in this study, that CO2 PPM is in itself a quite poor predictor of short to medium time frame Global-Southern Hemisphere-Australian &amp; Near Australian Southern Ocean Temperature Changes.&nbsp; In fact, the Table 1 results show that Solar-Magnetic effects, Nino Ocean effects and AMO Ocean effects, are controlling all short and medium term Temperature Trends across all four land &amp; ocean areas areas of the globe studied in this research. </span></span></b></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span class="style79">As regards Solar-Magnetic effects, this research also shows that the lagged AA Index is clearly the most important factor in short-medium and long term temperature changes from 1900 to 2007, having shown good to very good correlations in all short-medium and long range temperature trend periods tested.</span>&nbsp; </span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">These Solar-Magnetic links to Temperature and Climate have been shown to occur previously, but their exact effects and understanding of these effects on climate and temperature are still being constantly researched.... IE. Quote.&quot; <i>Scientists are looking at three main mechanisms that may explain this Sun-Earth link for our weather and climate. Firstly, the Sun&#39;s varying ultraviolet emissions affect the production of ozone in the Earth&#39;s atmosphere, changing our ozone layer, and affecting the large-scale circulation of air. Secondly, the solar wind&#39;s gusts affect the electrical properties of the Earth&#39;s upper atmosphere which somehow affects the lower layers of the atmosphere. Thirdly, during the solar minimum, the solar wind is weaker which enables galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) to enter the Earth&#39;s atmosphere more easily. GCRs are particles that are heavier and more energetic than those carried by the solar wind and are accelerated much farther away in space. Scientists believe that the movement of GCRs, which is influenced by the solar wind, generates conditions that promote the formation of low-altitude clouds. The significance of each of these mechanisms is as yet unknown, and scientists also do not know if the mechanisms are interrelated. Every avenue is being explored. &quot; (</i></span><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Source: <a href="http://www.esa.int/esaCP/ESAYIBZPD4D_index_0.html"> http://www.esa.int/esaCP/ESAYIBZPD4D_index_0.html</a> ...European Space Agency ESA</span></span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">)</span></span></span></i></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> Also, in this research study, the Ocean &quot;temperature influencing effects&quot; of the Pacific Nino &amp; Atlantic AMO Areas were shown to have much significance. This was especially true for the Short &amp; Medium Term Temperature Trends, but these Ocean climatic factors were also important&nbsp; in longer term temperature changes.. These Ocean factors are likely to be related to Solar-Magnetic via Solar-Magnetic-Ocean-Atmosphere teleconnections.......</span></span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33">I<i>t should be noted that the combined effect of the Solar-Magnetic-SOI-AMO climatic inputs&nbsp; is shown by this study over the Long Term 101 year period from 1907 to 2007 to have produced </span></span><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">73%</span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> of the 0.95C rise, compared to only </span></span><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style8">27%</span></span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> of the 0.95C rise by the CO2 PPM Variation.</span></span></i></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> While it is a proven science fact that CO2 increase will cause some small warming of temperatures, it appears that most of the time the &quot;CO2 warming effects&quot; are overwhelmed by Solar-magnetic and Ocean effects. These results suggest strongly that at the current rate of CO2 rise the increase in Global-Southern Hemisphere-Australian-Near Australian Southern Ocean Areas will be much less than that forecast by the IPCC and many other researchers. The factor of cutting CO2 emmissions in the future obviously should still be considered in some measure. And in the author&#39;s opinion, a steady moving ahead towards a goal of cleaner &amp; more efficient power generation, better land mangement &amp; better environmental practices is always a sound and good policy for all industry, bodies&nbsp; &amp; governments ...However, urgent greatly exagerrated castastrophic, impending doom talk, and hasty poor planning, based on much unproven theory, will do little to solve this small CO2 warming problem....And is likely to in fact waste money that could have been used on more effective research into agriculture, food production and other more important science matters.</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The Global-Southern Hemisphere-Australian &amp; Near Australia Southern Ocean temperature Forecasts produced by the Holton HFTM Model,</span></span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp; show that cooler&nbsp; conditions are forecast to develop by Late 2010-2011, or 2012 at the latest. </span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Temperatures from then on are forecast by the Holton HFTM Model to&nbsp; return to 1945 to 1978 type values, <span class="style79">of around 0.4 to 0.5C below current Feb-March 2010 General Mean Temperature levels.</span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp;<span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style29"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal">This Holton Weather HFTM Model Forecast of a return to cooler mean temperatures, when combined t</b></span></span></span></span>ogether with other Holton Weather Forecasts of a General 7 year Wetter Growing Season Rainfall Period for the Murray Darling Basin SE Australian Areas from 2010 to 2016 (*</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">See the Holton weather article that follows on from this one on this Web Page</span></span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">), </span></span> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style29"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> should give encouragment to Australian farmers, and in fact, to all Australians in general.</span></span></span></span></b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">Postcript: Let us all hope and pray that better climatic conditions do come to pass soon for the help of all Australians.</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p align="center" class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-: SPMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2"> <span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-them1: The SOUTHERN WET SEASON MBD Rainfall over the past 110yrs is NOT correlated with CO2 at all.&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;:: SWSMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:: AMBDR is Plotted against Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Cycles&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proo: WMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span class="style3" style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Important Notes</span></u><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style3">: While care is taken in producing these forecasts &amp; reports,, no responsibility is taken for the accuracy of these forecasts, or</span><span class="style3" style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span><span class="style3"> for the use of them by the customer, or for any loss that may occur by the use of any weather</span><span class="style3" style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span> <span class="style3">forecasting information contained in</span><span class="style3" style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span><span class="style3"> these forecasts. </span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><u> <span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof: yes">This article &amp; </span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof: yes">t</span><u><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:yes">hese forecasts are Copyright and may not be reproduced in total, or in part, or in any form, or reproduced<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>in total or in part<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>in any Agricultural Consultants Newsletter , and may not be supplied to other persons without the author s consent<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span></span></u></b> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </b></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <br /> &nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span></span></b> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">&nbsp; </p> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style4" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="MsoNormal"> <!--[if gte vml 1]> <v:shapetype id="_x0000_t76" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> </v:formulas> <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"/> </v:shapetype> <v:shape id="_x0000_i1039" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="" style='width:12pt; height:11.25pt'> <v:imagedata src="../../../../../IANHOL~1/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image001.jpg" o:href="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no; text-align: left;" class="style9"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9"> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: Cambria, serif; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proo: WMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2"><span style="font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-them1: The SOUTHERN WET SEASON MBD Rainfall over the past 110yrs is NOT correlated with CO2 at all.&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;:: SWSMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:: AMBDR is Plotted against Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Cycles&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proo: WMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-: SPMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers&lt;o:p&gt;&lt;/o:p&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p class=" MsoNormal"><u> <a href="http://www.holtonweather.com/article2.htm"><font color="#0e5bdc"> <img align="middle" border="0" class="style24" height="14" src="http://www.holtonweather.com/tinybutton.JPG" width="14" /></font></a></u></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><u><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">WHAT IS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE MURRAY DARLING BASIN SYSTEM RAINFALL (SOUTH QLD-NEW SOUTH WALES-VICTORIA &amp; SOUTH AUSTRALIA AREAS</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no" class="style9">)?....... AND WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR THE RAINFALL OF THE VAST MURRAY DARLING BASIN SYSTEM?</span></u></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-size:14.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</span><u><o:p></o:p></u></span></b></p> <p align="center" class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> Ian Holton, Holton Weather Forecasting Pty Ltd : Friday 5th March 2010 </span> <span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;</span></span><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no">&nbsp;</span></b><o:p></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <o:p><span class="style90" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"> <span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style91"><span style="font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style98"> THIS THE FIRST IN A THREE PART SERIES OF ARTICLES EXPLORING &amp; INVESTIGATING AUSTRALIA&#39;S RAINFALL, DAM, TEMPERATURE, SNOW &amp; RIVER FLOW FUTURE GENERAL TRENDS</span></span></span></o:p></b></o:p><o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><o:p><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style93">&nbsp; ***NB***</span></span></span><span class="style96"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style33"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style97">In these 3 articles all rainfall, dam inflow , temperature and snow predictions are for GENERAL LONGER YEARLY PERIOD TRENDS ONLY...It is highly recommended, that for more specific Yearly, Seasonally, Monthly, Weekly &amp; Daily Weather Forecasts, you join Holton Weather Forecasting Services</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style54"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style98"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">[ <i>Please Click on the Services Cloud Button in the Web Page Heading</i>] </span></span></span></span></span></span></o:p> </b></o:p> </p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <span class="style107">[</span><o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><o:p><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span class="style54"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style98"><span class="style29" style="mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color: #1F497D; mso-themecolor: text2; mso-no-proof: no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style97"><span class="style99">It should also be pointed out that shorter Holton Weather Yearly, Seasonally, Monthly, Weekly and Daily Weather Forecasts issued to clients, are formulated using Holton Weather Computer Models based on Ocean Temperatures, Upper Level Wind Flow, Satellite Observations, Pacific Nino, Indian Ocean Dipole, NW Cloudbands, Southern Ocean Frontal Systems, Upper Jet Streams, MJO Tropical Waves, ER Tropical Waves, Long Weather Experience, Local Weather Knowledge, etc...While the Longer Period Solar-Magnetic and Lunar Cycle Inputs used in these general trend forecasts are used for background information only.]</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></o:p></b></o:p></p> <p align="center" class="style43" style="punctuation-wrap: simple; text-autospace: none;"> <o:p> <o:p></o:p> </o:p> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style9"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> INTRODUCTIONpan></u><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">: an></span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">On my website at *http://www.holtonweather.com/article2.htm, I have published, over the past 2 years, five articles on Long Range Predictions of Rainfall and Dam Inflow<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> over South Eastern Australia (IE. South Australia-Victoria-New South Wales &amp; South Queensland </span>for up to the next 20-30 year period ahead.<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span></span></b> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">[*</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-size:8.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:11.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">SEE REFERENCES<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>AT END OF THIS ARTICLE</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">]</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no"> </span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The basis for making these predictions has been long term ocean cycles, solar cycles and lunar cycles. While some may scoff at ^Solar and Lunar Cycles being not a scientific approach to weather forecasting, in fact, these Solar &amp; Lunar Cycles are actually well recognised elements used in weather and climate forecasting in <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">many scientific&nbsp; </span>peer reviewed articles (</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">EG. <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;</span>See the references section at the end of </span> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;</span></span></b><span style="font-size:11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/#more-7965"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2">http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/#more-7965</span></b></a></span><b><span style="font-family:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2"> by Copeland &amp; Watts, 2009</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">. <o:p>]</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">^</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">See</span></b><b><u><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2"> Graph </span></u> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2">1a<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>below showing Copeland &amp; Watts Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar<u> </u>Model</span><u><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2"><o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="_x0000_i1036" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="" style='width:382.5pt;height:225pt'> <v:imagedata src="../../../../../IANHOL~1/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image003.png" o:href="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/figure6.png?w=510&amp;h=300" xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> </v:shape><![endif]--> <o:p><img src="http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/figure6.png?w=510&amp;h=300"></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <o:p>&nbsp;</o:p>In this latest article, I wish to use graphed model results and forecasts from the just mentioned Copeland and Watts web article, to see what connections, if any, exist between Seasonal Rainfall and &quot;Southern Wet Season &quot; Rainfall in the vast Murray Darling Basin Area of South QLD/ New South Wales/ Victoria and South Australia,<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>and (1) Carbon Dioxide Concentrations (CO2), (2) Sunspot Numbers, and, (3) The Watts and Copeland Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model as shown above in Graph 1a.<o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Now, everyone likely knows what, (1), CO2 Concentrations are, and how they have been blamed by some scientists and politicians, etc, for lowering Australia&#39;s rainfall in Southern Australian Areas, and also for depleting rainfalls &amp; river inflows into the Murray Darling Basin System.<o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">All would likely also know how, (2), Sunspots are counted on a daily, weekly, monthly &amp; yearly basis.&nbsp; And how these sunspots run in approximate ten year cycles of maximum and minimum numbers . Many would also know how folk &amp; some scientists often link these sunspot cycles to rainfall &amp; weather pattern changes around the globe.<o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><span class="style33">However</span>, I feel that few folk would know much about, (3), Copeland and Watts Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model!<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">This Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model was formulated from various Solar and Lunar Cycles. It is then used to show how well it correlates with Global Temperature changes.......However, on viewing this Sinusoidal graphed model of Copeland and Watts, I was immediately drawn to the close comparison of their model with SE Australian rainfall Trends over the past 110 years.<o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">This Copeland and Watts Sinusoidal (Cyclic) Solar-Lunar Model is composed of a combination of 4 Solar-Lunar Cycles,<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">(a) One of 20.68 years length, (b) Another of 9.23 years length, (c) Another of 15.08 years length, and finally, (4) One of 54.63 years length. </o:p></span></b> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Now, it is not the purpose of this article<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>to go into detail of how these cycles were found, aside to say that they were discovered Copeland and Watts through an MTM spectrum analysis. And these four Solar-Lunar Cycles that were found, are mainly related to already commonly known Solar &amp; Lunar Cycles found in previous scientific literature(</span><span style="mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">A</span><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no" class="style3">nyone wishing further information, please read the Watts and Copeland article itself, as referenced earlier</span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">).</o:p></span></span></b></p> <span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no"> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="font-size:11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> METHODOLOGYGY</span></u><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">:<span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp; </span>The following 5 pages show graphed Autumn, Winter, Spring and Summer, and Southern Wet Season(</span><span style="font-size:9.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">April to November</span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">) 4 Year Mean Rainfall Anomolies for each Season or Year, from 1900 to 2006 <span style="mso-spacerun:yes">&nbsp;</span>plotted against (a) CO2 levels, (b) Sunspot Numbers and (c) Copeland &amp; Watts Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">The resultant graphs are then visually examined to see if there are any significant correlations between: (a) the Rainfall Data and the CO2 levels, (b) the Rainfall Data and Sunspot Numbers, and, (c) the rainfall data and the Copeland &amp; Watts Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Model.&nbsp;</o:p><o:p>&nbsp&nbsp;This is done<span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no"> by looking&nbsp; at all the Murray Darling Basin Seasonal 4 Year Mean Rainfalls Anomolies from Autumn through Winter, Spring &amp; Summer, and&nbsp; &quot;Southern Wet Season&quot; (</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">ie. (April to November</span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">) , and graphing these against (a), (b) &amp; (c) mentioned above. The method then requires a visual viewing of how well the plotted traces corellate together over the 1900 to 2006 period, IE. How do the various peaks troughs correspond during this time frame? </span></b></o:p> </span></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family: &quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D; mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">Now this method may seem to be not as good as taking a mathematical correlation. However, if the reader can visually and clearly see any correlations with his own eyes, he or she will be much more convinced than by my presenting any mathematical correlation data that he or she cannot see as clearly. And also by this method one can make up their own mind as to how well any two graphed traces compare.&nbsp; <o:p></o:p> </span></b></o:p></span></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">GRAPHED ANALYSIS OF CO2, SUNSPOT NUMBERS AND SINUSOIDAL SOLAR-LUNAR CYCLES, AGAINST MURRAY DARLING BASIN 4 YEAR MEAN RAINFALLS ANOMOLIES FROM 1900 TO 2006 INCLUSIVE: AUTUMN SEASON.</span></u><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">We will first look at all the AUTUMN Murray Darling Basin Seasonal Rainfalls correlations.</span></b></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">Graphs 1-2: AUTUMN MURRAY DARLING BASIN RAINFALL(AMBDR) <o:p></o:p> </span></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">Graph 1</span></u><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">: AMBDR is Plotted against CO2 and Sunspot Numbers</span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage18" alt="001-2.jpg graph 1 AUT CO2-SUNSPOTS MBD picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/HOLTON%20LONG%20RANGE%20RAINDAM%20INFLOW%20FORECAST%20REVIEW/001-2.jpg?t=1267868609" /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2">Graph 1 Trace Conclusions: <o:p></o:p></span></u></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2">11: The AUTUMN MBD Rainfall over the past 110yrs is NOT correlated with CO2 at all.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2">2: The AUTUMN MDB Rainfall over the past 110yrs is somewhat correlated with the Sunspot Number as Peaks and Troughs DO match up to a FAIR degree.</span></b><o:p></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no"><u> Graph 2</u><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:: AMBDR is Plotted against Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Cycles<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="Chart_x0020_4" o:spid="_x0000_i1027" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:361.5pt; height:216.75pt;visibility:visible' o:gfxdata="UEsDBBQABgAIAAAAIQCk8pWRHAEAAF4CAAATAAAAW0NvbnRlbnRfVHlwZXNdLnhtbIySy2rDMBRE 94X+g9C2WHKyKKXEzqJOl20p6QcI6fpBrAe6ipP8fa+dZJFCk6yEEDNnZtBiubc9GyBi513BZyLn DJz2pnNNwX/W79kLZ5iUM6r3Dgp+AOTL8vFhsT4EQEZqhwVvUwqvUqJuwSoUPoCjl9pHqxJdYyOD 0hvVgJzn+bPU3iVwKUujBy8XnxQgdgbYl4rpQ1niSBNRwtxXXguy4uztqBmxBVch9J1WiULLwRlh MfN13WkQVcTVpHoaVfJ/b90SC+V0zO5AXHY64YzXW0tNhIlqR5PZXkyGZ3gFtdr2ia321Pc4cYQe 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xmlns:v="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="f" xmlns:o="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><span class="outline"> <img id="fullSizedImage7" alt="002.jpg GRAPH 2 AUT SINUSOIDAL MBD picture by ianholton" class="media" galleryimg="no" src="http://i519.photobucket.com/albums/u359/ianholton/HOLTON%20LONG%20RANGE%20RAINDAM%20INFLOW%20FORECAST%20REVIEW/002.jpg?t=1267863734" /></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2">Graph 2 Trace Conclusions: <o:p></o:p></span></u></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2">1:&nbsp; The AUTUMN MDB Rainfall over the past 110yrs is well correlated with the Sunsoidal Solar-Lunar Cycle as most Peaks and Troughs DO match up to a HIGH degree.</span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><o:p> &nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><o:p> &nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt; font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no">GRAPHED ANALYSIS OF CO2, SUNSPOT NUMBERS AND SINUSOIDAL SOLAR-LUNAR CYCLES, AGAINST MURRAY DARLING BASIN 4 YEAR MEAN RAINFALLS ANOMOLIES FROM 1900 TO 2006 INCLUSIVE: WINTER SEASON.<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span><o:p><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">We will now look at all the WINTER Murray Darling Basin Seasonal Rainfalls correlations.</span></o:p></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">Graphs 3-4: WINTER MURRAY DARLING BASIN RAINFALL(WMBDR) <o:p></o:p> </span></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans 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Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2">Graph 3 Trace Conclusions: <o:p></o:p></span></u></b> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2">1:&nbsp; The WINTER MBD Rainfall over the past 110yrs is NOT correlated with CO2 at all.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"> <span style="mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family: &quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2">2: The WINTER MDB Rainfall over the past 110yrs is poorly correlated with the Sunspot Number as Peaks and Troughs DO NOT match up to much of a degree.</span><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;;mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;; color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2;mso-no-proof:no"><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> &nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight:normal"><u> <span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">Graph 4</span></u><span style="font-size:11.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:&quot;Cambria&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;; mso-bidi-font-family:&quot;Microsoft Sans Serif&quot;;color:#1F497D;mso-themecolor:text2; mso-no-proof:no">: WMBDR is Plotted against Sinusoidal Solar-Lunar Cycles<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="Chart_x0020_6" o:spid="_x0000_i1029" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:361.5pt; 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